新型冠状病毒肺炎非药物干预措施对南非未来呼吸道合胞病毒传播的影响。

The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.

作者信息

Bents Samantha, Viboud Cécile, Grenfell Bryan, Hogan Alexandra, Tempia Stefano, von Gottberg Anne, Moyes Jocelyn, Walaza Sibongile, Cohen Cheryl, Baker Rachel

机构信息

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States.

出版信息

medRxiv. 2022 Mar 13:2022.03.12.22271872. doi: 10.1101/2022.03.12.22271872.

DOI:10.1101/2022.03.12.22271872

PMID:35313577

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8936096/

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants ≤ 2 years, with older infants (6-23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be prepared for an intense RSV season in early 2022.

摘要

为应对新冠疫情，南非政府采取了各种非药物干预措施（NPIs），以减少严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）的传播。除了减轻SARS-CoV-2的传播外，这些公共卫生措施还起到了减缓其他地方性呼吸道病原体传播的作用。来自南非的监测数据表明，在整个2020 - 2021年南半球冬季，呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）的传播率较低。在此，我们将年龄结构流行病学模型应用于国家监测数据，以预测在经历了两个传播受抑制季节后的2022年RSV疫情爆发情况。我们预计，2岁及以下婴儿每月住院高峰人数将增加32%，其中年龄较大的婴儿（6 - 23个月大）所承受的严重疾病负担比例将高于正常情况。我们的结果表明，医院系统应做好准备，迎接2022年初RSV高发季节的到来。