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耦合前期降雨以改善半干旱流域悬浮泥沙模拟降雨阈值的性能。

Coupling antecedent rainfall for improving the performance of rainfall thresholds for suspended sediment simulation of semiarid catchments.

作者信息

Yin Zhaorui, Qin Guanghua, Guo Li, Tang Xuan, Wang Jinxing, Li Hongxia

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.

Information Center (Hydrology Monitor and Forecast Center), Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, 100053, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 21;12(1):4816. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-08342-6.

Abstract

Suspended sediment transport is one of the essential processes in the geochemical cycle. This study investigated the role of rainfall thresholds in suspended sediment modeling in semiarid catchments. The results showed that rainfall-sediment in the study catchment (HMTC) could be grouped into two patterns on the basis of rainfall threshold 10 mm. The sediment modeling based on LSTM model with the rainfall threshold (C-LSTM scheme) and without threshold (LSTM scheme) were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the C-LSTM scheme had much better performances than LSTM scheme, especially for the low sediment conditions. It was observed that in the study catchment, the mean NSE was marginally improved from 0.925 to 0.934 for calibration and 0.911 to 0.924 for validation for medium and high sediment (Pattern 1); while for low sediment (Pattern 2), the mean NSE was significantly improved from -0.375 to 0.738 for calibration and 0.171 to 0.797 for validation. Results of this study indicated rainfall thresholds were very effective in improving suspended sediment simulation. It was suggested that the incorporation of more information such as rainfall intensity, land use, and land cover may lead to further improvement of sediment prediction in the future.

摘要

悬沙输运是地球化学循环中的重要过程之一。本研究调查了降雨阈值在半干旱流域悬沙模拟中的作用。结果表明,基于10毫米降雨阈值,研究流域(HMTC)的降雨-泥沙可分为两种模式。对基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型有降雨阈值(C-LSTM方案)和无降雨阈值(LSTM方案)的泥沙模拟进行了评估和比较。结果表明,C-LSTM方案的性能比LSTM方案好得多,特别是在低泥沙条件下。据观察,在研究流域,对于中高泥沙(模式1),校准的平均纳什效率系数(NSE)从0.925略微提高到0.934,验证的平均NSE从0.911提高到0.924;而对于低泥沙(模式2),校准的平均NSE从-0.375显著提高到0.738,验证的平均NSE从0.171提高到0.797。本研究结果表明降雨阈值在改善悬沙模拟方面非常有效。建议纳入更多信息,如降雨强度、土地利用和土地覆盖,可能会在未来进一步改善泥沙预测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1292/8938450/372cf02e43d0/41598_2022_8342_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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