Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University, 1821 Avenue I, SHB 241A, Huntsville, TX 77341, USA.
College of Public Health, University of South Florida, 13201 Bruce B. Downs Blvd., MDC56, Tampa, FL 33612, USA.
Econ Hum Biol. 2022 Aug;46:101120. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101120. Epub 2022 Mar 13.
We analyze the relationship between abortions and economic fluctuation at the U.S. state level for the 1995-2016 period. We do not find a statistically significant association between the overall abortion rate and the unemployment rate across the full sample period. However, we observe a procyclical association from approximately 2004 to 2010, during which a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 5% decrease in the abortion rate. This procyclical association is confirmed when we subsample our data to the 2005-2016 period. Our subgroup analysis indicates a procyclical association for the abortion rates for younger women, while we do not observe statistically significant associations when the analysis is stratified by race or ethnicity. The associations we observe for the younger age groups are especially pronounced in states with restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortions. Our analysis suggests that economic conditions may be an important factor in the reproductive choices by women.
我们分析了 1995 年至 2016 年美国各州堕胎与经济波动之间的关系。我们没有发现整个样本期间总堕胎率与失业率之间存在统计学上显著的关联。然而，我们观察到大约从 2004 年到 2010 年期间存在顺周期性关联，在此期间，失业率每增加一个百分点，堕胎率就会下降约 5%。当我们将数据细分为 2005 年至 2016 年期间时，这种顺周期性关联得到了证实。我们的分组分析表明，年轻女性的堕胎率存在顺周期性关联，而当按种族或族裔划分分析时，我们没有观察到统计学上显著的关联。我们观察到的年轻人群体的关联在限制医疗补助资金用于堕胎的州尤其明显。我们的分析表明，经济状况可能是女性生殖选择的一个重要因素。
