东海有害藻华风险的早期评估。
The early assessment of harmful algal bloom risk in the East China Sea.
机构信息
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; Key Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology (Xiamen University), Ministry of Education, Xiamen 361102, China.
出版信息
Mar Pollut Bull. 2022 May;178:113567. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113567. Epub 2022 Mar 23.
The East China Sea (ECS) is seriously impacted by harmful algal blooms (HABs). Therefore, early assessments of HAB risk in this area are extremely important. Using long-term historical HAB observation data and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), we found that the annual number of HAB events was positively correlated with the mean March SST and negatively correlated with the SST change rate from March to July in nearshore waters (< 50 m). A simple method of HAB risk assessment was therefore proposed based on either March SST (threshold: 13 °C) or SST change rate (threshold: 3.6 °C/month). Validation against a k-means classification scheme indicated that the overall accuracy based on the March SST threshold was 85%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.69. The SST-based method facilitates the assessment of HAB risk in the ECS 1-2 months in advance, thus helping to reduce the damage caused by HABs.
东海（ECS）受到有害藻华（HAB）的严重影响。因此，对该地区 HAB 风险进行早期评估非常重要。利用长期历史 HAB 观测数据和卫星反演的海面温度（SST），我们发现近岸水域（<50 米）中 HAB 事件的年发生次数与 3 月平均 SST 呈正相关，与 3 月至 7 月 SST 变化率呈负相关。因此，我们提出了一种基于 3 月 SST（阈值：13°C）或 SST 变化率（阈值：3.6°C/月）的简单 HAB 风险评估方法。利用 K-均值分类方案进行验证的结果表明，基于 3 月 SST 阈值的总准确率为 85%，kappa 系数为 0.69。基于 SST 的方法可提前 1-2 个月评估 ECS 的 HAB 风险，有助于减少 HAB 造成的损害。
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