Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Service Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada.
Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jul 15;830:154752. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154752. Epub 2022 Mar 23.
Great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of a changing climate on fire activity; however, a reliable approach with high prediction confidence has yet to be found. By establishing linkages between the longest duration of fire-conducive weather spell and fire activity parameters, this study projected annual area burned (AAB), annual number of fires (ANF), and annual maximum fire size (MFS) into the future. We found that even though the rates of change differ, the spatial pattern of changes for all three parameters are similar by Canadian ecozone. Areas with the lowest fire activity may see higher rates of change in comparison to high fire activity areas. By end of the century, the changes of AAB and MFS for the study area are projected to be about four and five times that of the baseline respectively, while ANF could almost double.
人们已经做出了巨大努力来了解气候变化对火灾活动的影响；然而，尚未找到一种具有高预测置信度的可靠方法。本研究通过建立火险天气持续时间与火灾活动参数之间的联系，对未来的年燃烧面积（AAB）、年火灾次数（ANF）和年最大火灾规模（MFS）进行了预测。我们发现，尽管变化率不同，但所有三个参数的空间变化模式在加拿大生态区都是相似的。与高火灾活动地区相比，火灾活动最低的地区的变化率可能更高。到本世纪末，研究区域的 AAB 和 MFS 变化预计将分别是基线的四倍和五倍左右，而 ANF 可能几乎翻一番。
