ORISE Postdoctoral Fellow, Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, USDA-ARS, 1102 S Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, United States of America.
Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, 1102 S Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, United States of America.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jul 15;830:154764. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154764. Epub 2022 Mar 24.
Since the 1950's much of the US soybean growing region has experienced rising temperatures, more variable rainfall, and increased carbon emissions. These trends are predicted to continue throughout the 21st century. Variable weather and weed interference influence crop performance; however, their combined effects on soybean yield are poorly understood. Using machine learning techniques on a database of herbicide trials spanning 28 years and 106 weather environments we modeled the most important relationships among weed control, weather variability, and crop management on soybean yield loss. When late-season weeds were poorly controlled, average soybean yield losses of 48% were observed. Additionally, when weeds were not completely controlled, low rainfall and high temperatures during seed fill exacerbated soybean yield loss due to weeds. Since much of the US soybean growing region is heading towards drier, warmer conditions, coupled with growing herbicide resistance, future soybean yield loss will increase without significant improvements in weed management systems.
自 20 世纪 50 年代以来，美国大豆种植区的气温上升、降雨更加多变、碳排放增加。这些趋势预计将在 21 世纪持续。多变的天气和杂草干扰会影响作物的表现；然而，它们对大豆产量的综合影响还不太清楚。我们使用机器学习技术对一个涵盖 28 年和 106 种天气环境的除草剂试验数据库进行分析，研究了杂草防治、天气变化和作物管理对大豆减产的最重要关系。当后期杂草控制不佳时，观察到大豆平均减产 48%。此外，当杂草没有完全控制时，在种子填充期间降雨量低和温度高会加剧由于杂草导致的大豆减产。由于美国大豆种植区的大部分地区正朝着干燥、温暖的条件发展，再加上除草剂抗性的增加，如果杂草管理系统没有显著改进，未来的大豆产量损失将会增加。
