Acute graft-versus-host disease increase risk and accuracy in prediction model of transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is the only curative therapy for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome. Transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) remains a cause of death after transplantation. This study assessed the risk factors of TA-TMA and established a prediction model for this complication. We launched a real-world study from 303 MDS patients after allo-HSCT from Dec 1, 2007, to Jun 1, 2018. Logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors and to establish a nomogram. The accuracy of the model was assessed by C-index and calibration curve. TA-TMA class was associated with an over twofold increase in the risk of death (HR 2.66, 95% CI 1.39-5.09, p = 0.003). Stage III or IV acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) (OR: 6.17, 95% CI: 2.19-17.18, p < 0.001) and occurrence time of aGVHD were the risk factors for TA-TMA. Next, we put these two variants and the other three variants into the prediction model via multivariate Lasso regression. In order to quantify the contribution of each factor, a nomogram was generated and displayed (C index of 0.783). TA-TMA predicts worsened outcomes of overall survival. A cross-validated multivariate score including aGVHD occurrence showed excellent concordance and efficacy of predicting TA-TMA in HSCT patients.