School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Mar 29;19(7):4030. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19074030.
The sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations are focused on regional development and ecological security. Based on these SDGs, quantitative regional landscape ecological risk assessment is significant to realize regional sustainable development. This study took the central mountainous area (CMA) of Hainan Island as the research area, and combined SDGs and a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to analyze multi-scenario land-use change and landscape ecological risk simulation. The study results show that the low ecological risk areas are located in the central hinterland of the CMA, and the high ecological risk areas are located on the northern and southern edges, with strong disturbances from human activities. The construction land in the CMA expanded drastically from 2010 to 2018, mainly invading forestland and grassland, leading to landscape fragmentation, which was the main cause of the increased ecological risk in the CMA landscape. The future multi-scenario simulations for SDGs show that under the scenario of natural development and economic development, the construction land and water area will significantly expand and the forest land will be dramatically reduced. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land will be restrained, and the area of forest land will increase. The results showed that the landscape ecological risks in the three simulated scenarios would be higher than in 2018, but the increase in the landscape ecological risks under the ecological protection scenario would be relatively slight. Forest land plays an essential role in maintaining the ecological security of the CMA. The expanding construction land in the CMA has led to landscape fragmentation and increased ecological risk. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the forest land in the CMA. In addition, construction and development should be limited in high-risk areas. Although the adoption of the ecological conservation scenario favors regional sustainability, it is still necessary to improve ecological protection policies such as ecological compensation to ensure the realization of other SDGs.
联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）侧重于区域发展和生态安全。基于这些 SDGs，进行定量的区域景观生态风险评估对于实现区域可持续发展至关重要。本研究以海南岛中部山区（CMA）为研究区域，结合 SDGs 和斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型，分析多情景土地利用变化和景观生态风险模拟。研究结果表明，低生态风险区位于 CMA 的中心腹地，高生态风险区位于北部和南部边缘，受到人类活动的强烈干扰。CMA 的建设用地从 2010 年到 2018 年急剧扩张，主要侵占林地和草地，导致景观破碎化，这是 CMA 景观生态风险增加的主要原因。未来针对 SDGs 的多情景模拟表明，在自然发展和经济发展情景下，建设用地和水域将显著扩张，林地将大幅减少。在生态保护情景下，建设用地扩张将受到限制，林地面积将增加。结果表明，在三个模拟情景下，景观生态风险将高于 2018 年，但在生态保护情景下，景观生态风险的增加将相对较小。林地在维持 CMA 生态安全方面发挥着重要作用。CMA 不断扩张的建设用地导致了景观破碎化和生态风险增加。因此，有必要保护 CMA 的林地。此外，在高风险区域应限制建设和发展。尽管采用生态保护情景有利于区域可持续性，但仍有必要完善生态保护政策，如生态补偿，以确保实现其他 SDGs。
