新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株引发的香港新冠肺炎疫情超级传播潜力
Superspreading potential of COVID-19 outbreak seeded by Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong.
机构信息
The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China.
Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China.
出版信息
J Travel Med. 2022 Sep 17;29(6). doi: 10.1093/jtm/taac049.
Abstract
Using two early transmission chains in Hong Kong, the estimated and were 1.34 (95%CrI: 0.94-2.19) and 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.17-0.62) respectively, inferring 20.3% (95%CrI: 12.7%-29.6%) cases were responsible for 80% of the transmissions of the Omicron epidemic. Compared with Omicron BA.1, Omicron BA.2 had a greater superspreading potential.
摘要
利用香港的两条早期传播链，估计的基本再生数 和 分别为 1.34（95%可信区间：0.94-2.19）和 0.33（95%可信区间：0.17-0.62），推断出 20.3%（95%可信区间：12.7%-29.6%）的病例导致了奥密克戎疫情 80%的传播。与奥密克戎 BA.1 相比，奥密克戎 BA.2 具有更大的超级传播潜力。
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