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基于主体的游乐园疏散建模。

Agent-based modeling for theme park evacuation.

机构信息

Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6307-6625.

Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana.

出版信息

J Emerg Manag. 2022 Mar-Apr;20(2):157-173. doi: 10.5055/jem.0561.

DOI:10.5055/jem.0561
PMID:35451051
Abstract

Each year theme parks can see up to 20 million patrons, but often little effort is put into planning for an emergency evacuation. In this study, we built a multiagent simulation model using AnyLogic® 8.5.1. The model was based on a preliminary design of a theme park provided by AOA Builds, Orlando. This research had two goals: the first was to compare evacuation time when the park is full (1) using only the main guest gate and (2) using all seven available exits. The second goal was to model first responder response time between various start and end locations within the park. Using only the main gate, evacuation took an average of 14 minutes and 51 seconds. Using all seven gates results in an average evacuation time of 11 minutes and 58 seconds. This was due to a gate being overwhelmed causing a delay in overall evacuation time. If that gate is not included in the calculation, the average evacuation time drops to 6 minutes and 44 seconds. For the purpose of measuring response times, four starting locations were chosen with the guidance of a subject matter expert. These locations included response teams positioned at the front gate, at a police station, at the service area behind a main attraction, and mobile patrol walking around the park. Based on our testing, walking around the park was the best option in terms of response time, using the main gate was 53.7 percent faster than other options and, using all seven gates, was 60.7 percent faster during an evacuation using all seven exits.

摘要

每年主题公园可接待多达 2000 万名游客,但通常很少有人关注紧急疏散的规划。在这项研究中,我们使用 AnyLogic® 8.5.1 构建了一个多主体仿真模型。该模型基于 AOA Builds 公司提供的主题公园初步设计。本研究有两个目标:第一个是比较公园满员时(1)仅使用主客门和(2)使用所有七个可用出口的疏散时间。第二个目标是在公园内各种起点和终点之间模拟急救人员的响应时间。仅使用主门,疏散平均需要 14 分 51 秒。使用所有七个门的疏散时间平均为 11 分 58 秒。这是由于一个门的人流量过大导致整体疏散时间延迟。如果不将该门计算在内,平均疏散时间将降至 6 分 44 秒。为了测量响应时间,我们在主题专家的指导下选择了四个起始位置。这些位置包括位于前门、警察局、主要景点后面服务区和在公园内巡逻的移动巡逻队的响应团队。根据我们的测试,在公园内巡逻是响应时间最佳的选择,使用主门比其他选择快 53.7%,而在使用所有七个出口的情况下,使用所有七个门的疏散时间快 60.7%。

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