National Wildlife Management Centre, APHA, Sand Hutton, York, UK.
Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen Institute of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands; Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, UCD School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland.
Prev Vet Med. 2022 Jul;204:105635. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105635. Epub 2022 Apr 1.
In wildlife disease management there are few diseases for which vaccination is a viable option. The human vaccine BCG has been used for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers since 2010 and is expected to increase. Understanding the long-term effects of repeated vaccination campaigns on disease prevalence is vital, but modelling thus far has generally assumed that a vaccine provides perfect protection to a proportion of the population, and that animals exposed to a repeated vaccination have a second independent chance of becoming protected. We held a workshop with experts in the field to obtain consensus over the main pathways for partial protection in the badger, and then simulated these using an established model. The available data supported the possibility that some individuals receive no benefit from the BCG vaccine, others may result in a delayed disease progression and in the remaining animals, vaccine protected the individual from any onward transmission. Simulating these pathways using different levels of overall efficacy demonstrated that partial protection leads to a reduced effect of vaccination, but in all of the identified scenarios it was still possible to eradicate disease in an isolated population with no disease introduction. We also identify those potential vaccination failures that require further investigation to determine which of our proposed pathways is the more likely.
在野生动物疾病管理中，很少有疾病可以通过接种疫苗来有效控制。自 2010 年以来，人类疫苗卡介苗（BCG）一直被用于控制獾中的牛结核病，预计其使用量将会增加。了解反复接种疫苗对疾病流行率的长期影响至关重要，但迄今为止的建模通常假设疫苗能为一部分人群提供完全保护，并且接触过重复接种疫苗的动物有第二次独立的机会获得保护。我们与该领域的专家举行了一次研讨会，就獾中部分保护的主要途径达成共识，然后使用已建立的模型对这些途径进行模拟。现有数据支持以下可能性，即一些个体从 BCG 疫苗中没有获益，其他个体可能导致疾病进展延迟，而在其余动物中，疫苗保护个体免受任何后续传播。使用不同水平的总体疗效模拟这些途径表明，部分保护会降低疫苗的效果，但在所有确定的情况下，仍然有可能在没有疾病引入的情况下从一个隔离种群中根除疾病。我们还确定了那些需要进一步调查的潜在疫苗失败情况，以确定我们提出的途径中哪一种更有可能。
