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黄河流域大气污染治理与减碳协同效益研究——基于空间计量模型的评估

Study on the Co-Benefits of Air Pollution Control and Carbon Reduction in the Yellow River Basin: An Assessment Based on a Spatial Econometric Model.

机构信息

Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China.

Fudan Tyndall Center, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 9;19(8):4537. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084537.

Abstract

To assess the green and low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China, this study utilizes an evaluation index system based on the framework of driving force, pressure, state, impacts, response, and management, and it measured the comprehensive scores of the co-benefits of carbon reduction and air pollution control in the YRB. The global Moran index was used to analyze the spatial correlation characteristics of co-benefits, and a generalized spatial measurement model was constructed to demonstrate their spatial spillover effects. The results show that the co-benefits steadily increased every year. The co-benefits had a significant positive spatial correlation and showed a development trend of "up-down-up". According to the spillover effect test, the economic development level, education level, and intensity of environmental regulations had significant positive effects, while the level of urbanization and foreign investment had significant negative effects. Considering these results and the aim of promoting green and low-carbon development, clear detection of the spatial spillover characteristics of the co-benefits should be prioritized, followed by an understanding of the spatial transmission mechanism of carbon and air pollutant emission and transfer. Policy recommendations are also proposed including upgrading industrial structure, focusing on the development of modern services and high-tech industry, and strictly implementing the industrial environment access system.

摘要

为评估中国黄河流域(YRB)的绿色低碳发展,本研究利用了一个基于驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应和管理框架的评价指标体系,并测量了 YRB 减碳与空气污染控制协同效益的综合得分。采用全局 Moran 指数分析协同效益的空间相关特征,构建广义空间测量模型,揭示其空间溢出效应。结果表明,协同效益逐年稳步增长。协同效益具有显著的正空间相关性,呈“下-上-下”的发展趋势。根据溢出效应检验,经济发展水平、教育水平和环境规制强度具有显著的正向影响,而城市化水平和外资具有显著的负向影响。考虑到这些结果和促进绿色低碳发展的目标,应优先明确协同效益的空间溢出特征,继而深入了解碳和空气污染物排放转移的空间传递机制。本文还提出了政策建议,包括升级产业结构、注重现代服务业和高科技产业的发展,以及严格执行产业环境准入制度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fad/9024584/f655e01fe80a/ijerph-19-04537-g001.jpg

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