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使用倍增法估计西班牙消遣性阿片类药物使用的流行率。

Estimating the Prevalence of Recreational Opioid Use in Spain Using a Multiplier Method.

机构信息

Departamento de Salud Pública y Materno-Infantil, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain.

CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28029 Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 15;19(8):4815. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084815.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph19084815
PMID:35457681
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9027743/
Abstract

Acknowledgement of the prevalence of recreational opioid use (PROU) is key to the planning and evaluation of care services. However, in Spain, the prevalence of PROU in recent years is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the PROU between 2005 and 2019 in the general populations of six Spanish cities. A benchmark-multiplier methodology was used to estimate the PROU population size. The benchmark used was overdose deaths from recreational opioid use in Spain's six most populated cities. The multiplier was the overdose death rate in a cohort of heroin users. Linear regression was used to estimate the trend of the PROU estimate over the set period of years. In 2005, the PROU was 4.78 (95%CI 3.16-7.91) per 1000 people. The estimated trend decreased, with the two lowest values being 2.35 per 1000 in 2015 and 2.29 in 2018. In 2019 the PROU was 2.60 per 1000 (95%CI 1.72-4.31), 45% lower than in 2005. While the decline in the PROU continues, its deceleration over the last four years calls for increased vigilance, especially in light of the opioid crisis in North America that has occurred over the last few years.

摘要

承认娱乐性阿片类药物使用(PROU)的流行对于规划和评估护理服务至关重要。然而,在西班牙,近年来 PROU 的流行情况尚不清楚。本研究的目的是估计 2005 年至 2019 年期间在西班牙六个城市的普通人群中的 PROU 流行率。采用基准乘数方法估计 PROU 的人口规模。基准是西班牙六个人口最多的城市中因娱乐性阿片类药物使用而导致的过量死亡人数。乘数是一组海洛因使用者的过量死亡率。线性回归用于估计研究期间 PROU 估计值的趋势。2005 年,PROU 为每 1000 人 4.78(95%CI 3.16-7.91)。估计的趋势呈下降趋势,两个最低值分别为 2015 年的每 1000 人 2.35 和 2018 年的 2.29。2019 年 PROU 为每 1000 人 2.60(95%CI 1.72-4.31),比 2005 年降低了 45%。尽管 PROU 仍在下降,但过去四年的下降速度有所放缓,这需要提高警惕,特别是鉴于过去几年北美阿片类药物危机的发生。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c593/9027743/fab9ee33217c/ijerph-19-04815-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c593/9027743/fab9ee33217c/ijerph-19-04815-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c593/9027743/fab9ee33217c/ijerph-19-04815-g001.jpg

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