Predicting how pollinator behavior causes reproductive isolation.

Pollinator behavior is an important contributor to plants speciation, yet how variation in pollinator behavior causes variation in reproductive isolation (RI) is largely uncharacterized. Here I present a model that predicts how two aspects of pollinator behavior, constancy and preference, contribute to a barrier to reproduction in plants. This model is motivated by two observations: most co-occurring plants vary in frequency over space and time, and most plants have multiple pollinators that differ in behavior. Thus, my goal was to understand how relative frequencies of plants and pollinators in a community influence ethological RI between co-occurring plants. I find that RI for a focal plant generally increases with increasing relative plant frequency, but the shape of this relationship is highly dependent on the strength of pollinator behavior (constancy and preference). Additionally, when multiple pollinators express different behavior, I find that pollinators with stronger preference disproportionately influence RI. But, I show that RI caused by constancy is the average RI predicted from constancy of each pollinator weighted by pollinator frequency. I apply this model to examples of pollinator-mediated RI in and in to predict the relationships between plant frequency and ethological RI in natural systems. This model provides new insights into how and why pollinator specialization causes RI, and how RI could change with changing biological communities.