Research on the transformation from international exhibition to "cloud" exhibition in the post COVID-19 era: A case study of China International Fair for Investment & Trade.

By exploring the China International Fair for Investment and Trade's development process, this study analyzes its absolute advantages in future development, gradually lost comparative advantages, and potential crises. Through the data envelopment analysis model, the study analyzes its resource allocation efficiency based on two cooperation modes: traditional "Offline" investment mode and "Online + Offline" investment mode. Then we use vector autoregressive model to comprehensively investigate the impact and causality of the two input factors on output. We find that its comprehensive allocation efficiency presents a "U" shape that reflects the characteristics of its three stages: the first stage, 2001-2005; the second stage, 2006-2012; and the third stage, 2013-2020. The main factors affecting resource allocation efficiency are then deduced from the results: exhibition scale utilization, booth design innovation, project strength of participating enterprises, and the signing rate of overseas customers. The number of industrial and commercial groups (X4) and participating countries and regions (X6) have an important impact on the output indicators: signed contract projects (Y1). The empirical results verify that the "Online + Offline" investment mode is an effective and suitable mechanism to solve the problem of cooperation and investment constrained by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this study posits the path and countermeasures of realizing the transformation to "cloud" exhibition in the post-pandemic era. Especially, we should focus on building new mechanisms of business environment that will promote the active participation of national, regional, and international industrial and commercial groups. The purpose is to continuously strengthen the foundation of cooperative trust and innovate a new trust model of online cooperative trading.