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多国联合举办欧洲足球锦标赛:参赛队伍之间足够公平吗?

Multi-hosting UEFA European Football Championship: fair enough between participating teams?

作者信息

Brocherie Franck, De Larochelambert Quentin, Millet Grégoire P

机构信息

Laboratory Sport, Expertise and Performance (EA 7370), French Institute of Sport, Paris, France.

Institut de Recherche Bio-Médicale et d'Épidémiologie du Sport, EA7329, INSEP, Université de Paris, Paris, France.

出版信息

Sci Med Footb. 2023 May;7(2):171-176. doi: 10.1080/24733938.2022.2072944. Epub 2022 May 13.

Abstract

PURPOSE

To describe the effects of travel distance and bio-meteorological conditions on the 2020 multi-hosting UEFA European Championship's match outcomes and progress in competition.

METHODS

Teams' basecamps, distance from match venues, match outcomes (defeat, draw and win), bio-meteorological data (ambient air temperature, relative humidity and wet bulb globe temperature) and corresponding FIFA world ranking were extracted from the UEFA and FIFA websites; and analyzed through Chi-squared test (impact of basecamp location on match outcomes), Kruskal-Wallis test (distribution of travel distances carried out), ordinal regressions (with match outcomes and competition phases as variables of interest and FIFA ranking and venue distance as explanatory variables) and principal component analysis (with the bio-meteorological conditions and match outcomes for each match).

RESULTS

Teams with basecamp near match venue improved their match outcomes. However, neither the Kruskal-Wallis test (p > 0.05) nor ordinal regressions (odds ratio (OR) > 0.96, p > 0.403) identified any significant effect of travel distance on match outcomes. FIFA ranking improved the likelihood of a favorable match outcome (OR = 0.87, p = 0.001) and progression in competition (OR = 0.97, p = 0.003). Despite some matches were played in more stressful bio-meteorological conditions, no associations were found with match outcomes ( = -0.07 to 0.19, p > 0.188).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings cannot conclusively clarify on the effects of travel and bio-meteorological conditions on match outcomes and progress in the multi-hosting UEFA European championship, but suggest to carefully consider these variables for future multi-hosting competition to avoid any discrepancies between teams.

摘要

目的

描述旅行距离和生物气象条件对2020年多主办国举办的欧洲足球锦标赛比赛结果及比赛进程的影响。

方法

从欧洲足球协会联盟(UEFA)和国际足球联合会(FIFA)网站提取各球队的大本营、与比赛场馆的距离、比赛结果(失利、平局和获胜)、生物气象数据(环境空气温度、相对湿度和湿球黑球温度)以及相应的国际足联世界排名;并通过卡方检验(大本营位置对比赛结果的影响)、克鲁斯卡尔-沃利斯检验(所进行的旅行距离分布)、有序回归分析(以比赛结果和比赛阶段为感兴趣的变量,国际足联排名和场馆距离为解释变量)以及主成分分析(针对每场比赛的生物气象条件和比赛结果)进行分析。

结果

大本营靠近比赛场馆的球队比赛成绩有所提高。然而,克鲁斯卡尔-沃利斯检验(p>0.05)和有序回归分析(优势比(OR)>0.96,p>0.403)均未发现旅行距离对比赛结果有任何显著影响。国际足联排名提高了取得有利比赛结果的可能性(OR=0.87,p=0.001)以及在比赛中的晋级可能性(OR=0.97,p=0.003)。尽管有些比赛是在压力更大的生物气象条件下进行的,但未发现与比赛结果有相关性(=-0.07至0.19,p>0.188)。

结论

这些发现无法确凿地阐明旅行和生物气象条件对多主办国举办的欧洲足球锦标赛比赛结果及比赛进程的影响,但建议在未来的多主办国比赛中仔细考虑这些变量,以避免各球队之间出现任何差异。

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