Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the Gulf region.

PURPOSE

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.

METHODS

Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed.

RESULTS

In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.