State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, People's Republic of China.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, Mohali, Punjab 140306, India.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Aug 25;836:155380. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155380. Epub 2022 Apr 27.
Upsurge of glacier-related hazards in High Mountain Asia (HMA) has been evident in recent years due to global warming. While many glacial-related hazards are instantaneous, some large landslides were preceded by slow gravitational deformation, which can be predicted to evade catastrophes. Here, we present robust evidence of historical deformation in 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche of Himalaya using space imaging techniques. Multi-temporal satellite data provide evidence of a precursor event in 2016 and expansion of a linear fracture along joint planes, indicating 2021 rock-ice avalanche is a retrogressive wedge failure. The deformation history shows that the fracture propagated at a velocity of 0.07 m day until September 2020, and with an accelerated velocity (0.14 m day on average) lately. Analysis of recent similar cases in HMA supported our inference on global warming-induced glacier retreat and thermomechanical effects in enhancing the weakening of fractured rock masses in tectonically active mountain belts. Recent advances in Earth observation and seismic monitoring system can offer clues to the location and timing of impending catastrophic failures in high mountain regions.
由于全球变暖，近年来高山亚洲（HMA）的冰川相关灾害明显增加。虽然许多冰川相关灾害是瞬间发生的，但一些大型山体滑坡之前存在缓慢的重力变形，可以通过预测来避免灾难。在这里，我们使用空间成像技术为喜马拉雅山 2021 年查谟利岩冰崩提供了有力的历史变形证据。多时相卫星数据提供了 2016 年前期事件和沿节理面扩展的线性断裂的证据，表明 2021 年岩冰崩滑是后退楔形破坏。变形历史表明，裂缝以约 0.07 m/天的速度传播，直到 2020 年 9 月，然后最近以加速速度（平均约 0.14 m/天）传播。对 HMA 中最近发生的类似情况的分析支持了我们的推断，即全球变暖导致冰川后退和热力学效应增强了构造活动山脉带中破碎岩体的弱化。地球观测和地震监测系统的最新进展可以为高山地区即将发生的灾难性故障的位置和时间提供线索。
