Influence path identification of topography, soil, hydrology and landscape on phosphorus buffering capacity in typical agricultural catchments in central subtropical China.

The catchment phosphorus buffering capacity (PBF) determines the pressure-state-response relationship between anthropogenic P inputs and aquatic ecosystems at a catchment scale, and is affected by biogeochemical, hydrological, and ecological catchment characteristics. However, the complex relationship between these catchment characteristic factors and their impact pathways on PBF remains ambiguous, leading to large uncertainty in balancing agricultural productivity and water conservation via improving BF through management practices. In this study, the short-term buffering index, calculated from net anthropogenic P input and riverine P exports, was used to quantify the spatiotemporal variations in PBF in source agricultural catchments in the Dongting Lake basin. Partial least squares structural equation modeling was used to investigate the relationship between the PBF and the catchment characteristics. The results indicate that catchment PBF was directly determined by soil properties and hydrological conditions, while landscape patterns significantly mediated the effects of topography on soil and hydrology. Considering the pathway preferences of the model, landscape patterns could be the priority for characterizing and regulating PBF. According to a change-point analysis, the probability of PBF weakening increases dramatically when the proportion of farmland (Farm%) > 24.6%, degree of patch interspersion (Contagion index) < 64.5%, and Perimeter-Area Ratio Distribution (PARA) > 348.7. These findings provide new insights into catchment buffering mechanisms and can be used to promote the simultaneous achievement of agricultural production and environmental conservation goals.