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确定 COVID-19 对石油市场和股票交易所之间溢出效应的影响:全球视角分析。

Determining the COVID-19 effects on spillover between oil market and stock exchange: a global perspective analysis.

机构信息

School of public finance and tax, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, 100081, China.

Fanli business school, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Nanyang, 473004, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Sep;29(44):66109-66124. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19607-y. Epub 2022 May 1.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-19607-y
PMID:35501434
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9059909/
Abstract

This paper investigates volatility spillovers between the global crude oil market and the stock markets of the global oil stock markets (Russian, Canada, China, Kuwait, and the USA) pre and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We use wavelet Granger causality methods to study the volatility spillovers between global oil stock markets, mainly from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2021. Our Results (1) shows that WTI and Brent oil prices had a negative mean return before COVID-19 but a positive mean return during the pandemic spread. Other Results (2) find the positive, significantly lowest, and highest frequency during the COVID-19 outbreak for all selected countries. The results also show that the link between oil WTI & Brent prices and stock markets return in the lowest (33-66 days) and highest frequency range (4-16) before the Covid-19 epidemic, especially in the first quarter of 2020. Before the COVID-19 period, the Russian oil stock market is seriously prejudiced with oil prices on a modest scale, but not after the pandemic's start. This study also perceives direction opposite between the COVID-19 period. The Canadian and United States America oil and stock markets influence the lowest scale in the previous COVID-19 sample for the U.S. market. Moreover, this paper exposed that oil marketing highest oil futures in their portfolios than stock shares for all times. We found that oil price shocks had a more significant impact on the stock markets of the United States and Canada than on the stock markets of other countries.

摘要

本文探讨了 COVID-19 疫情前后全球原油市场与全球石油股票市场(俄罗斯、加拿大、中国、科威特和美国)之间的波动溢出效应。我们使用小波格兰杰因果关系方法研究了全球石油股票市场之间的波动溢出效应,主要是在 2019 年 1 月 1 日至 2021 年 3 月 31 日之间。我们的结果(1)表明,WTI 和布伦特原油价格在 COVID-19 之前的平均回报率为负,但在疫情传播期间的平均回报率为正。其他结果(2)发现,在 COVID-19 爆发期间,所有选定国家的石油价格都呈现出正的、显著最低和最高频率。结果还表明,在 COVID-19 疫情之前,WTI 和 Brent 油价与股票市场回报率之间的联系在最低(33-66 天)和最高频率范围(4-16)中较为明显,特别是在 2020 年第一季度。在 COVID-19 疫情之前,俄罗斯石油股票市场受到油价的严重影响,但在疫情爆发后并非如此。本研究还发现,在 COVID-19 期间,两者之间的关系相反。在 COVID-19 之前的样本中,加拿大和美国的石油和股票市场对美国市场的影响最小。此外,本文还发现,石油市场在其投资组合中持有最高的石油期货,而不是股票。我们发现,油价冲击对美国和加拿大的股票市场的影响比其他国家的股票市场更为显著。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/34ab6c819b99/11356_2022_19607_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/7a252b291906/11356_2022_19607_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/9796e4e8f51e/11356_2022_19607_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/ed4b46eeac4e/11356_2022_19607_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/34ab6c819b99/11356_2022_19607_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/7a252b291906/11356_2022_19607_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/9796e4e8f51e/11356_2022_19607_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/ed4b46eeac4e/11356_2022_19607_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e366/9059909/34ab6c819b99/11356_2022_19607_Fig4_HTML.jpg

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