Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA.
Department of Science, Chatham University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA.
Evolution. 2022 Jul;76(7):1406-1419. doi: 10.1111/evo.14512. Epub 2022 May 19.
Simulation-based and permutation-based inferential methods are commonplace in phylogenetic comparative methods, especially as evolutionary data have become more complex and parametric methods more limited for their analysis. Both approaches simulate many random outcomes from a null model to empirically generate sampling distributions of statistics. Although simulation-based and permutation-based methods seem commensurate in purpose, results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) based on the distributions of random F-statistics produced by these methods can be quite different in practice. Differences could be from either the null-model process that generates variation across many simulations or random permutations of the data, or different estimation methods for linear model coefficients and statistics. Unfortunately, because the null-model process and coefficient estimation are intrinsically linked in phylogenetic ANOVA methods, the precise reason for methodological differences has not been fully considered. Here we show that the null-model processes of phylogenetic simulation and randomizing residuals in a permutation procedure are indeed commensurate, and that both also produce results consistent with parametric ANOVA, for cases where parametric ANOVA is possible. We also provide results that caution against using ordinary least-squares estimation along with phylogenetic simulation; a typical phylogenetic ANOVA implementation.
基于模拟和基于置换的推断方法在系统发育比较方法中很常见,特别是随着进化数据变得更加复杂,参数方法对其分析的局限性也越来越大。这两种方法都从一个零模型中模拟许多随机结果,以经验生成统计量的抽样分布。虽然基于模拟和基于置换的方法在目的上似乎是一致的,但基于这些方法产生的随机 F 统计量分布的方差分析 (ANOVA) 的分析结果在实践中可能会有很大的不同。差异可能来自于产生多次模拟中变异的零模型过程或数据的随机置换,也可能来自于线性模型系数和统计量的不同估计方法。不幸的是,由于系统发育 ANOVA 方法中的零模型过程和系数估计是内在相关的,因此还没有充分考虑方法差异的确切原因。在这里,我们表明,在参数分析可行的情况下,系统发育模拟和置换过程中残差随机化的零模型过程确实是一致的,而且两者都产生与参数 ANOVA 一致的结果。我们还提供了一些结果,提醒人们不要使用普通最小二乘估计和系统发育模拟;这是一种典型的系统发育 ANOVA 实现。