School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266520, China.
Tongji University Sustainable Development and New-Type Urbanization Think-Tank, Shanghai, 200092, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 May 6;12(1):7404. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11436-w.
With global climate change and the rapid urbanization, urban flood and drought disasters are frequent and urban water supply systems are facing a sea of serious challenges. It is crucial to assess the resilience of urban water supply systems and develop corresponding disaster mitigation and improvement strategies. Urban water supply systems include many subsystems, but existing researches generally focus on a single subsystem. Therefore, this paper proposes a correlation analysis method and a factor analysis method for the resilience evaluation index system of urban water supply systems by combining each subsystem and applying grey system theory. The method can reflect the four dimensions of the water supply process (water source, water plant, supply and distribution network and users) and the five dimensions of the urban management system (society, natural environment, economy, physics and organization). Taking Qingdao as an example, a multi-level integrated evaluation model based on a cloud model is applied to simulate and analyze the resilience of Qingdao's water supply system. As a result, decision support is provided for planning and building resilience systems for urban water systems in the short and long term, based on four main factors.
随着全球气候变化和快速城市化，城市洪涝和干旱灾害频繁发生，城市供水系统面临着严峻的挑战。评估城市供水系统的弹性并制定相应的灾害缓解和改善策略至关重要。城市供水系统包括许多子系统，但现有研究通常侧重于单个子系统。因此，本文通过结合各个子系统并应用灰色系统理论，提出了一种城市供水系统弹性评价指标体系的相关分析方法和因子分析方法。该方法可以反映供水过程的四个维度（水源、水厂、供水管网和用户）和城市管理系统的五个维度（社会、自然环境、经济、物理和组织）。以青岛为例，应用基于云模型的多层次综合评价模型对青岛供水系统的弹性进行模拟分析。结果为规划和建设城市水系统的弹性系统提供了决策支持，基于四个主要因素，对短期和长期的城市水系统规划和建设具有重要意义。
