Department of Population Health Sciences, Spencer Fox Eccles School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
BMJ Open. 2022 May 9;12(5):e058196. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-058196.
In 2016, Arizona enacted SB 1487 to nullify Tucson's ordinance permitting the municipality to destroy confiscated and forfeited firearms and instead require the firearms to be resold to the public through an auctioneer. Our objective was to examine whether firearm suicide rates increased in Pima County (greater Tucson area) relative to other Arizona counties following the enactment of Arizona's 2016 pre-emption law.
An observational study of a natural policy experiment. We used a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the effects of Arizona enacting SB 1487 on firearm suicide rates in Pima County. Our statistical analyses adjusted for county-level differences in population demographics (age, gender and race) and unemployment rates, as well as a proxy for firearm availability and mental health professional shortage area status.
9 Arizona counties from 2014 to 2019.
A policy group was constructed using Pima County (Tucson area) observations. A comparison group was created using data from eight other Arizona counties. 54 county-year observations were analysed.
SB 1487, which pre-empted Tucson law and allowed firearms that were seized/surrendered to law enforcement to be recirculated instead of destroyed.
Annual rates of firearm and non-firearm suicides per 100 000 persons extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER system.
Over the study period, comparison group counties had an average of 14.87 firearm suicides per 100 000 persons per year, compared with 11.56 firearm suicides per 100 000 persons per year in Pima County. A 1.13 increase in Pima County's firearm suicides per 100 000 persons coincided with the enactment of Arizona's 2016 pre-emption law, relative to comparison group counties over the same period.
SB 1487 was associated with higher firearm suicide rates in Pima County relative to other areas not targeted by the law, assuming fewer firearms were destroyed and more firearms re-entered the greater Tucson area through 2019.
2016 年，亚利桑那州颁布了 SB 1487 法案，使图森市允许该市没收和没收的枪支被销毁的法令无效，而是要求枪支通过拍卖商转售给公众。我们的目的是研究在亚利桑那州 2016 年颁布的预先禁令法之后，皮马县（图森地区）的枪支自杀率是否相对于其他亚利桑那州各县有所增加。
一项自然政策实验的观察性研究。我们使用差异中的差异方法来估计亚利桑那州颁布 SB 1487 法案对皮马县枪支自杀率的影响。我们的统计分析调整了县一级人口统计数据（年龄、性别和种族）和失业率的差异，以及枪支可用性和心理健康专业短缺地区地位的代理指标。
2014 年至 2019 年的 9 个亚利桑那州各县。
使用皮马县（图森地区）的观测结果构建了一个政策组。创建了一个比较组，使用来自其他八个亚利桑那州各县的数据。分析了 54 个县年观测结果。
SB 1487 法案预先禁止了图森市的法律，并允许被执法部门没收/交出的枪支重新流通，而不是销毁。
在研究期间，比较组各县每年每 10 万人中有 14.87 人死于枪支自杀，而皮马县每年每 10 万人中有 11.56 人死于枪支自杀。在同一时期，与比较组各县相比，皮马县的枪支自杀人数每年增加 1.13 人，这与亚利桑那州 2016 年预先禁令法的颁布相对应。
假设到 2019 年，销毁的枪支减少，更多的枪支通过 2019 年重新进入大图森地区，SB 1487 与皮马县相对其他不受该法律影响的地区的枪支自杀率较高有关。
