Conservation and Science Department, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA.
Ecol Appl. 2022 Oct;32(7):e2647. doi: 10.1002/eap.2647. Epub 2022 Jun 26.
To mitigate human-wildlife conflict it is imperative to know where and when conflict occurs. However, standard methods used to predict the occurrence of human-wildlife conflict often fail to recognize how a species distribution likely limits where and when conflict may happen. As such, methods that predict human-wildlife conflict could be improved if they could identify where conflict will occur relative to species' underlying distribution. To this end, we used an integrated species distribution model that combined presence-only wildlife complaints with data from a systematic camera trapping survey throughout Chicago, Illinois. This model draws upon both data sources to estimate a latent distribution of species; in addition, the model can estimate where conflict is most likely to occur within that distribution. We modeled the occupancy and conflict potential of coyote (Canis latrans), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), and raccoon (Procyon lotor) as a function of urban intensity, per capita income, and home vacancy rates throughout Chicago. Overall, the distribution of each species constrained the spatiotemporal patterns of conflict throughout the city of Chicago. Within each species distribution, we found that human-wildlife conflict was most likely to occur where humans and wildlife habitat overlap (e.g., featuring higher-than-average canopy cover and housing density). Furthermore, human-wildlife conflict was most likely to occur in high-income neighborhoods for Virginia opossum and raccoon, despite the fact that those two species have higher occupancy in low-income neighborhoods. As such, knowing where species are distributed can inform guidelines on where wildlife management should be focused, especially if it overlaps with human habitats. Finally, because this integrated model can incorporate data that have already been collected by wildlife managers or city officials, this approach could be used to develop stronger collaborations with wildlife management agencies and conduct applied research that will inform landscape-scale wildlife management.
为了减轻人与野生动物的冲突，了解冲突发生的地点和时间至关重要。然而，用于预测人类与野生动物冲突的标准方法往往无法认识到物种的分布如何限制冲突发生的地点和时间。因此，如果预测人类与野生动物冲突的方法能够识别冲突相对于物种潜在分布发生的位置，那么这些方法可以得到改进。为此，我们使用了一种综合物种分布模型，该模型将野生动物投诉的存在数据与伊利诺伊州芝加哥市系统相机陷阱调查的数据相结合。该模型利用这两个数据源来估计物种的潜在分布；此外，该模型还可以估计在该分布内冲突最可能发生的位置。我们将郊狼（Canis latrans）、弗吉尼亚负鼠（Didelphis virginiana）和浣熊（Procyon lotor）的占有率和冲突潜力作为芝加哥市各地区的城市强度、人均收入和房屋空置率的函数进行建模。总体而言，每个物种的分布限制了整个芝加哥市冲突的时空模式。在每个物种的分布范围内，我们发现人类与野生动物栖息地重叠的地方（例如，树冠覆盖和住房密度高于平均水平）最有可能发生人与野生动物的冲突。此外，尽管弗吉尼亚负鼠和浣熊在低收入社区的占有率较高，但它们在高收入社区发生人与野生动物冲突的可能性最大。因此，了解物种的分布位置可以为野生动物管理应集中的地点提供指导方针，尤其是如果这些地点与人类栖息地重叠的话。最后，由于这种综合模型可以纳入野生动物管理者或城市官员已经收集的数据，因此可以利用这种方法与野生动物管理机构建立更紧密的合作，并开展应用研究，为景观尺度的野生动物管理提供信息。
