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调查中国四川和贵州典型地区非城市道路交通事故的严重程度。

Investigating the severity of non-urban road traffic accidents in typical regions of Sichuan and Guizhou, China.

机构信息

School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, China.

Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, China.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2022;23(5):290-295. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2022.2062333. Epub 2022 May 10.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The traffic characteristics of Sichuan and Guizhou differ from those of other regions due to its unique geographical features. In addition, accident studies in China mainly focus on urban roads in the eastern and central regions. However, studies on western regions, especially non-urban roads, are scarce. Thus, this study aims to explore the factors that influence the severity of accidents on non-urban roads in typical regions of Sichuan and Guizhou.

METHODS

A total of 541 cases from 2014 to 2020 were selected from the database of the China In-Depth Accident Study, where 18 variables, which may exert an impact on accident severity, were extracted after screening. First, heterogeneity of data was eliminated through latent class analysis (LCA). The ordered probit (OP) model was then conducted for each class to obtain significant variables that exert an impact on accident severity. The study quantified the degree of influence of the significant variables using marginal effect analysis.

RESULTS

The LCA results demonstrate that data were categorized into the following classes, namely, (a) two-vehicle accidents involving trucks, (b) pedestrian and multiple-vehicle accidents, (c) two-wheeler accidents, and (d) single-vehicle accidents. The OP results show that most variables could exert impact on accident severity, and some of them exerted varying levels of influence on the severity of different classes, whereas others only influence a specific class.

CONCLUSION

According to this study, we obtained the accident characteristics of these regions and put forward some targeted suggestions to further improve the level of road traffic safety. The findings can provide support for the construction of transportation in line with the regional characteristics in China.

摘要

目的

由于四川和贵州独特的地理特征,其交通特征与其他地区不同。此外,中国的事故研究主要集中在东部和中部地区的城市道路上,而对西部地区,特别是非城市道路的研究则很少。因此,本研究旨在探讨影响四川和贵州典型地区非城市道路事故严重程度的因素。

方法

本研究从中国深入事故研究数据库中选取了 2014 年至 2020 年的 541 例案例,筛选出可能对事故严重程度产生影响的 18 个变量。首先,通过潜在类别分析(LCA)消除数据的异质性。然后,对每个类别进行有序概率(OP)模型分析,以获得对事故严重程度有影响的显著变量。使用边际效应分析量化显著变量的影响程度。

结果

LCA 结果表明,数据分为以下几类:(a)涉及卡车的两车事故,(b)行人和多车事故,(c)两轮车事故,和(d)单车事故。OP 结果表明,大多数变量对事故严重程度有影响,其中一些对不同类别的严重程度有不同程度的影响,而另一些则只对特定类别有影响。

结论

根据本研究,我们获得了这些地区的事故特征,并提出了一些有针对性的建议,以进一步提高道路交通安全水平。研究结果可为中国符合区域特色的交通建设提供支持。

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