College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
College of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 7;19(9):5707. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095707.
Climate change has significantly affected agricultural production. As one of China's most important agricultural production regions, the North China Plain (NCP) is subject to climate change. This paper examines the influence of climate change on the wheat and maize yields at household and village levels, using the multilevel model based on a large panel survey dataset in the NCP. The results show that: (i) Extreme weather events (drought and flood) would significantly reduce the wheat and maize yields. So, the governments should establish and improve the emergency service system of disaster warning and encourage farmers to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters. (ii) Over the past three decades, the NCP has experienced climate change that affects its grain production. Therefore, it is imperative to build the farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. (iii) Spatial variations in crop yield are significantly influenced by the household characteristics and the heterogeneity of village economic conditions. Therefore, in addition to promoting household production, it is necessary to strengthen and promote China's development of the rural collective economy, especially the construction of rural irrigation and drainage infrastructures.
气候变化对农业生产产生了重大影响。作为中国最重要的农业生产区之一，华北平原（NCP）受到气候变化的影响。本文利用 NCP 大面板调查数据集的多层次模型，考察了气候变化对农户和村庄层面小麦和玉米产量的影响。结果表明：（i）极端天气事件（干旱和洪水）会显著降低小麦和玉米的产量。因此，政府应该建立和完善灾害预警应急服务体系，鼓励农民减轻灾害的不利影响。（ii）过去三十年来，华北平原经历了气候变化，影响了其粮食生产。因此，建设农民适应气候变化的能力迫在眉睫。（iii）作物产量的空间变化受农户特征和村庄经济条件异质性的显著影响。因此，除了促进家庭生产外，还需要加强和促进中国农村集体经济的发展，特别是农村灌溉和排水基础设施的建设。
