School of Public Finance and Taxation, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430074, China.
School of Economics, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 9;19(9):5755. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095755.
Whilst effective public expenditure policies are essential for transforming the traditional factor-driven economy into a green and innovation-driven economy, the impacts of public expenditure's size and composition on green economic development have not been comprehensively investigated. This paper attempts to fill this research gap. Based on the data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2018, we first measure green total factor productivity (GTFP), the proxy variable for green development, and briefly analyze its spatial-temporal trends. Then, using the dynamic panel models, dynamic panel mediation models, and dynamic panel threshold models, we evaluate how public expenditure affects GTFP. The main findings are fourfold: (1) there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the expenditure size and GTFP. (2) The expansion of social expenditures and science and technology (S&T) and environmental protection expenditures play an important role in stimulating green growth, while economic expenditures and administrative expenditures have adverse effects. (3) Public expenditure mainly promotes green development through four channels: human capital accumulation, technological innovation, environmental quality improvement, and labor productivity increase. (4) The expenditure composition influences the turning point of the inverted U-shaped relationship. Based on these findings, we propose some targeted policy suggestions to promote green development.
虽然有效的公共支出政策对于将传统的要素驱动型经济转变为绿色和创新驱动型经济至关重要，但公共支出的规模和构成对绿色经济发展的影响尚未得到全面研究。本文试图填补这一研究空白。基于 2010 年至 2018 年中国地级市的数据，我们首先衡量了绿色全要素生产率（GTFP），这是绿色发展的代理变量，并简要分析了其时空趋势。然后，我们利用动态面板模型、动态面板中介模型和动态面板门槛模型，评估了公共支出对 GTFP 的影响。主要发现有四点：（1）支出规模与 GTFP 之间存在显著的倒 U 型关系。（2）社会支出、科学技术（S&T）和环境保护支出的扩大对刺激绿色增长起着重要作用，而经济支出和行政支出则产生不利影响。（3）公共支出主要通过人力资本积累、技术创新、环境质量改善和劳动生产率提高等四个渠道促进绿色发展。（4）支出构成影响倒 U 型关系的转折点。基于这些发现，我们提出了一些有针对性的政策建议，以促进绿色发展。
