Considering the influence of land use/land cover on estuarine biotic richness with Bayesian hierarchical models.

The composition of land use/land cover (LULC) in coastal watersheds has many implications for estuarine system ecological function. Land use/land cover can influence allochthonous inputs and can enhance or degrade the physical characteristics of estuaries, which in turn affects estuaries' ability to support local biota. However, these implications for estuaries are often poorly considered when assessing the value of lands for conservation. The focus of research regarding terrestrial and estuarine interfaces often evaluates how LULC may stress estuarine ecosystems, but in this study we sought to understand how LULC may both positively and negatively affect estuaries using measures of observed biotic richness as proxies for estuarine function. We investigated the influence of LULC on estuarine biotic richness with Bayesian hierarchical models using multiple geospatial data sets from 33 estuaries and their associated watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region of the United States. We designed the hierarchical models with observed species richness of three functional groups (FGs) (i.e., pelagic fishes, forage fishes, and shrimp) from fishery-independent trawl surveys as response variables. We then set salinity and water temperature as trawl-specific covariates and measures of influence from six LULC classes as estuary-specific covariates and allowed the models to vary by estuary, trawl program, salinity, and temperature. The model results indicated that the observed richness of each FG was both positively and negatively associated with different LULC classes, with estuarine wetlands and forested lands demonstrating the strongest positive influences on each FG. The results are generally consistent with past studies, and the modeling framework provides a promising way to systematically quantify LULC linkages with the biotic health of estuaries for the purposes of potentially valuing the estuarine implications of land conservation.