Ego network analysis of the trophic structure of an island land bird through 300 years of climate change and invaders.

Ego net analysis is a well-known practice in social sciences, where an ego net (EN) consists of a focal node, the ego, and its links to other nodes, called alters, and alter-alter links may also be included. An EN describes how a focal node is embedded in its interaction context. Here, I introduce EN analysis to ecology in a study of the trophic network of a sub-Antarctic land bird, Lesser Sheathbill (). Data originate from the sheathbill population on Marion Island in the Southern Ocean. The bird is ego and its enemies and food are alters. The EN is organized along three dimensions: habitat, interaction type, and time (from before human arrival in 1803 and until a future year 2100). Ten EN descriptors are defined, estimated, and used to track the 300 years of change in sheathbill EN structure. Since 1803, the EN has passed two major, but reversible shifts-seal exploitation in the 19th century and presence of cats from 1949 to 1991. These shifts can be read as structural changes in the sheathbill EN. In the future, a third, perhaps irreversible change is predicted, driven by climate change and a surprising, recent shift to seabird predation by House Mouse, the most detrimental of all extant invaders on Marion. In a warmer and drier future, the mouse will proliferate, and if this forces seabirds to abandon the island, their accumulation of detritus runs dry, starving a rich invertebrate detritivore fauna, which also is a key food source to sheathbills. These detritivores together with plants have also constituted the main food sources of mice. The EN descriptors quantify that story. In the future, these events may lead to a collapse of the island ecosystem, including extinction of the sheathbill-unless plans for mouse eradication are implemented.