模拟疫苗犹豫对延长控制新冠疫情所需非药物干预措施时长的影响。

Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

作者信息

Olivera Mesa Daniela, Hogan Alexandra B, Watson Oliver J, Charles Giovanni D, Hauck Katharina, Ghani Azra C, Winskill Peter

机构信息

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

出版信息

Commun Med (Lond). 2022 Feb 10;2:14. doi: 10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x

PMID:35603311

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9053271/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Vaccine hesitancy - a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability - has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. In this study, we aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We modelled the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys.

RESULTS

Our simulations suggest that the mortality over a 2-year period could be up to 7.6 times higher in countries with high vaccine hesitancy compared to an ideal vaccination uptake if NPIs are relaxed. Alternatively, high vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for NPIs to remain in place.

CONCLUSIONS

While vaccination is an individual choice, vaccine-hesitant individuals have a substantial impact on the pandemic trajectory, which may challenge current efforts to control COVID-19. In order to prevent such outcomes, addressing vaccine hesitancy with behavioural interventions is an important priority in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

摘要