The influence of Lake Okeechobee discharges on Karenia brevis blooms and the effects on wildlife along the central west coast of Florida.

Blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis (K. brevis) are a common occurrence in the Gulf of Mexico, especially along Florida's coast. The blooms produce brevetoxins, potent neurotoxins that are associated with mortalities of marine wildlife. In recent years, K. brevis blooms seem to have become more frequent and intense. The cause of these suspected increases is highly debated, with one suggested explanation being anthropogenic eutrophication. Patient records from the Clinic for the Rehabilitation of Wildlife (CROW) on Sanibel Island, Florida, USA, and K. brevis cell count samples from the west coast of Florida were used to assess trends in red tides and affected wildlife. Flow data from the Okeechobee waterway was used to investigate if discharges from Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee Estuary, where eutrophication is present, influence red tides along Florida's central west coast. Overall, K. brevis blooms show trends of increasing intensity and duration along Florida's coast between 1954 and 2020 (latest data available). This means the amount of wildlife affected will likely increase in the future, as a linear relationship was found between the number of admissions to CROW and K. brevis densities. Furthermore, water discharges from the Okeechobee waterway (including Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee Estuary) into the Gulf of Mexico were significantly correlated with K. brevis densities, which suggests that anthropogenic pollution might play a role in the observed increases. Clear correlations were found between K. brevis densities and brevetoxicosis patient numbers admitted, and this was strongest with overall admissions lagging 23 days behind cell counts. This further confirms brevetoxins as the likely cause of their morbidity and supports previous research on brevetoxin retention in the environment. Different species groups had significant correlations with K. brevis cell counts, double-crested cormorants showing the strongest link, and there were significant differences between these groups in lag times. The differences are likely due to their distinct foraging behaviours or susceptibilities to brevetoxins. These findings can help predict future trends in red tides and can guide further research on the effects of discharges on K. brevis blooms.