Increased river flow enhances the resilience of spatially patterned mudflats to erosion.

Estuarine mudflats are profoundly affected by increased coastal erosion and reduced sediment delivery from major rivers. Although managers are having difficulties to control the cause of increased coastal erosion, they can help to manage the resilience of mudflat ecosystems to erosion through river flow regulation. In this study, we associated the resilience of a mudflat ecosystem to erosion with various magnitudes of river flow using a mechanism-based eco-morphodynamic model. Ecosystem resilience was reported in terms of i) what range of erosion rate the system can withstand before function collapse (persistence), ii) at which point function can be recovered (recovery), and iii) the uncertainty of system response to disturbances (response uncertainty). Specifically, the function of intertidal mudflat was characterized by landscape heterogeneity, primary productivity, and sediment stabilization. In a case study of the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) of China, it is found that increased erosion induced a collapse of the functioning state. Once collapsed, the erosion rate at which mudflat could recovered was lower than the erosion rate at which mudflat collapsed. Increased river flow enhanced the resilience of the mudflat ecosystem to erosion by increasing sediment deposition rate, which was an important attribute in the interaction process driving ecosystem resilience. Furthermore, given the same river flow allocation, the system with dynamic grazer population was more resilient than the system with a constant grazer number, highlighting the importance of controlling mudflat aquaculture to optimize the performance of river flow regulation. Our modeling results are dependent on the environment with several assumptions, however, as a preliminary, we believe our work represents a fundamental shift to modeling ecosystem resilience based on the mechanism of bio-physical interactions rather than relying on just quantifying the vital rates of particular species to compare river flow scenarios.