Educational differentials on the transition to first birth in South Korea.

Drawing on two competing frameworks, the leader-follower model and the permanent-difference model, this study examines the educational gradient in the transition to first birth across birth cohorts in South Korea. The leader-follower model suggests that low fertility behaviour would spread from more educated women to their less educated counterparts, whereas the permanent-difference model posits that the gaps in fertility between education groups would remain distinct over time. Using nationally representative panel data of 7914 women (130,078 person-years) born between 1960 and 1984, results from discrete-time survival analysis show an initial convergence of gaps in fertility between education groups, but the gaps are now re-emerging and widening. Substantial gaps in fertility are found in younger birth cohorts born between 1975 and 1984. The convergence-divergence pattern observed over time highlights the importance of recognising how women's changing educational profile affects fertility in an ultra-low fertility setting.