Surrogate prediction of the breakthrough curve of solute transport in rivers using its reach length dependence.

Techniques for predicting the contaminant cloud propagation along a stream are necessary for swift action against contaminant spill accidents in fluvial systems. Due to their low computational cost, one-dimensional solute transport models have conventionally been employed, in which the complex channel characteristics are considered using model parameters. However, the determination of such parameters relies predominantly on optimization techniques based on pre-measured tracer data, which are usually unavailable for unexpected accidents. The present paper suggests an alternative method for predicting a breakthrough curve (BTC) variation along an unmeasured stream reach where no flow information is provided. In this study, we investigated the relationship between directly-measured flow properties and BTC characteristics based on field tracer experiments. Using statistical features of the tracer BTCs, we devised a regressive prediction method for estimating the BTC features as a function of travel distance, and validated the method by comparison with simulations using both a one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation (ADE) and transient storage model (TSM), whose parameters were calibrated at upstream reaches. The proposed regressive predictions were relatively accurate than those from parameter-calibrated models, and this advantage was more apparent for long-distance predictions for the unmeasured river reach.