Evans A E, D'Angio G J, Propert K, Anderson J, Hann H W
Cancer. 1987 Jun 1;59(11):1853-9. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(19870601)59:11<1853::aid-cncr2820591102>3.0.co;2-f.
Known prognostic factors in neuroblastoma were analyzed in 124 children to determine which were independent and which were most useful in predicting outcome. The following factors were analyzed: age, sex, stage of disease, serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE), serum ferritin, E-rosette inhibition, urinary catecholamines, and histologic type according to the criteria of Shimada. Estimates of survival were calculated using the method of Kaplan and Meier. The overall survival for 124 patients was 60% at 2 years. There were significant differences in survival by pathology, age, NSE, ferritin, vanilmandelic acid (VMA): homovanillic acid (HVA) ratio, and stage. There was a strong association among NSE, age, stage, and ferritin. Using the recursive partitioning approach, it was possible to subdivide patients into three groups (based on diagnostic values of ferritin, age, and stage) with a good, intermediate, and poor prognosis and estimated 2-year survival of 100%, 62%, and 19%, respectively. Further analysis could not be done because of small numbers in the subgroups, but the results suggest that combinations of age, stage, serum ferritin, and histologic type may be able to define two populations: favorable with 80% + 2-year survival and unfavorable with less than 20%.
对124名儿童的神经母细胞瘤已知预后因素进行了分析，以确定哪些是独立因素，哪些在预测预后方面最有用。分析了以下因素：年龄、性别、疾病分期、血清神经元特异性烯醇化酶（NSE）、血清铁蛋白、E玫瑰花结抑制率、尿儿茶酚胺以及根据岛田标准确定的组织学类型。采用Kaplan-Meier法计算生存率估计值。124例患者的2年总生存率为60%。病理、年龄、NSE、铁蛋白、香草扁桃酸（VMA）与高香草酸（HVA）比值以及分期在生存率方面存在显著差异。NSE、年龄、分期和铁蛋白之间存在密切关联。采用递归划分方法，可将患者分为三组（基于铁蛋白、年龄和分期的诊断值），预后良好、中等和较差，估计2年生存率分别为100%、62%和19%。由于亚组中的病例数较少，无法进行进一步分析，但结果表明，年龄、分期、血清铁蛋白和组织学类型的组合可能能够界定两类人群：2年生存率达80%及以上的预后良好人群和2年生存率低于20%的预后不良人群。
