School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 26;19(11):6453. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19116453.
Based on a literature review and theoretical mechanism, this paper takes the implementation point of the adjustment and transformation policy for old industrial cities as the breakthrough point, and uses a regression model to explore the impact of the adjustment and transformation policy of these old industrial cities on urban carbon emissions. This paper also robustly tests the effective mechanisms and environmental hypotheses. Overall, the implementation of the adjustment and renovation policy has significantly reduced the carbon emissions of old industrial cities by about 0.068 units. Compared with the control group cities, the pilot cities reduced carbon emissions by an average of about 310,000 tons after the implementation of the policy. Based on a summary of the excellent Chinese case experience and an empirical analysis, it can be concluded that improvements in the green innovation capacity of old industrial cities, the agglomeration of high-end service industries, and the strengthening of ecological restoration are important mechanisms that lead to reduced carbon emissions. There is no subsequent exacerbation of the carbon intensity of neighboring cities, and there is insufficient evidence to prove pollution via neighboring transfers and use of the beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The extended analysis shows that the "inverted U-shaped" CO Kuznets environmental curve hypothesis is significantly present in the sample of old industrial cities, but most cities do not cross the threshold. In 2013, about 60% of the urban sample economic growth and carbon emissions showed signs of tapping into potentials and increasing efficiency (absolute decoupling) and intensive expansion (relative decoupling). In old industrial cities, the proportion of relative decoupling shows a fluctuating upward trend. In the future, the government should accurately select its own development orientation and actively seek the "best balance" between economic growth and a green and low-carbon path.
基于文献回顾和理论机制，本文以老工业城市调整转型政策的实施点为切入点，采用回归模型探讨了这些老工业城市的调整转型政策对城市碳排放的影响。本文还稳健地检验了有效机制和环境假说。总体而言，调整转型政策的实施使老工业城市的碳排放平均减少了约 0.068 个单位。与对照组城市相比，政策实施后，试点城市的碳排放平均减少了约 31 万吨。通过总结中国优秀案例经验和实证分析，可以得出结论，老工业城市绿色创新能力的提高、高端服务业的集聚以及生态修复的加强是导致碳排放减少的重要机制。没有出现相邻城市碳强度随后恶化的情况，也没有足够的证据证明存在污染转移和邻避政策的利用。扩展分析表明，在老工业城市样本中，“倒 U 型”CO 库兹涅茨环境曲线假说显著存在，但大多数城市尚未跨越门槛。2013 年，约 60%的城市样本经济增长和碳排放表现出挖掘潜力和提高效率（绝对脱钩）和集约扩张（相对脱钩）的迹象。在老工业城市中，相对脱钩的比例呈现波动上升的趋势。未来，政府应准确选择自身的发展方向，积极寻求经济增长与绿色低碳路径之间的“最佳平衡”。
