Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jun 2;19(11):6820. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19116820.
At present, earthquakes cannot be predicted. Scientific decision-making and rescue after an earthquake are the main means of mitigating the immediate consequences of earthquake disasters. If emergency response level and earthquake-related fatalities can be estimated rapidly and quantitatively, this estimation will provide timely, scientific guidance to government organizations and relevant institutions to make decisions on earthquake relief and resource allocation, thereby reducing potential losses. To achieve this goal, a rapid earthquake fatality estimation method for Mainland China is proposed herein, based on a combination of physical simulations and empirical statistics. The numerical approach was based on the three-dimensional (3-D) curved grid finite difference method (CG-FDM), implemented for graphics processing unit (GPU) architecture, to rapidly simulate the entire physical propagation of the seismic wavefield from the source to the surface for a large-scale natural earthquake over a 3-D undulating terrain. Simulated seismic intensity data were used as an input for the fatality estimation model to estimate the fatality and emergency response level. The estimation model was developed by regression analysis of the data on human loss, intensity distribution, and population exposure from the Mainland China Composite Damaging Earthquake Catalog (MCCDE-CAT). We used the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake as a study case to provide estimated results within 1 h after the earthquake. The number of fatalities estimated by the model was in the range of 0-10 (five expected fatalities). Therefore, Level IV earthquake emergency response plan should have been activated (the government actually overestimated the damage and activated a Level II emergency response plan). The local government finally reported three deaths during this earthquake, which is consistent with the model predictions. We also conducted a case study on a 2013 Ms7.0 earthquake in the discussion, which further proved the effectiveness of the method. The proposed method will play an important role in post-earthquake emergency response and disaster assessment in Mainland China. It can assist decision-makers to undertake scientifically-based actions to mitigate the consequences of earthquakes and could be used as a reference approach for any country or region.
目前，地震无法预测。科学决策和震后救援是减轻地震灾害直接后果的主要手段。如果能够快速、定量地估计应急响应级别和与地震相关的死亡人数，这种估计将为政府组织和相关机构提供及时、科学的决策指导，以进行地震救援和资源分配，从而减少潜在损失。为了实现这一目标，本文提出了一种基于物理模拟和经验统计相结合的中国大陆快速地震死亡人数估计方法。数值方法基于三维（3-D）曲面网格有限差分法（CG-FDM），并在图形处理单元（GPU）架构上实现，以便快速模拟从震源到地表的整个地震波场的物理传播，适用于大规模天然地震在 3-D 起伏地形上的传播。模拟的地震强度数据被用作死亡人数估计模型的输入，以估计死亡人数和应急响应级别。该估计模型是通过对中国大陆综合破坏性地震目录（MCCDE-CAT）中的人员损失、强度分布和人口暴露数据进行回归分析开发的。我们使用 2021 年 Ms6.4 漾濞地震作为研究案例，在地震发生后 1 小时内提供了估计结果。模型估计的死亡人数在 0-10 人之间（预计有 5 人死亡）。因此，应启动四级地震应急响应计划（政府实际上高估了损失，启动了二级应急响应计划）。当地政府最终报告了此次地震的三人死亡，与模型预测结果一致。我们还在讨论中对 2013 年 Ms7.0 地震进行了案例研究，进一步证明了该方法的有效性。该方法将在中国大陆震后应急响应和灾害评估中发挥重要作用。它可以协助决策者采取基于科学的行动来减轻地震的后果，并可作为任何国家或地区的参考方法。
