School of Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Aquatic Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Jun 11;194(7):493. doi: 10.1007/s10661-022-10114-8.
Microcystin (MC) is a toxic secondary metabolite produced by select cyanobacteria that threatens aquatic and terrestrial organisms over a diverse range of freshwater systems. To assess the relationship between environmental parameters and MC, researchers frequently utilize correlational analyses. This statistical methodology has proved useful when summarizing complex water quality monitoring datasets, but the correlations between select parameters and MC have been documented to vary widely across studies and systems. Such variation within the peer-reviewed literature leaves uncertainty for resource managers when developing a MC monitoring program. The objective of this research is to determine if correlational analyses between environmental parameters and MC are helpful to resource managers desiring to understand the drivers of MC. Environmental (i.e., physical, chemical, and biological) and MC correlation data were retrieved from an estimated 2,643 waterbodies (largely from the north temperate region) and synthesized using a Fisher's z meta-analysis. Common water quality parameters, such as chlorophyll, temperature, and pH, were positively correlated with MC, while transparency was negatively correlated. Interestingly, 12 of the 15 studied nitrogen parameters, including total nitrogen, were not significantly correlated with MC. In contrast, three of the four studied phosphorus parameters, including total phosphorus, were positively related to MC. Results from this synthesis quantitatively reinforces the usefulness of commonly measured environmental parameters to monitor for conditions related to MC occurrence; however, correlational analyses by themselves are often ineffective and considering what role a parameter plays in the ecology of cyanobacterial blooms in addition to MC production is vital.
微囊藻毒素（MC）是一种由特定蓝藻产生的有毒次生代谢产物，对各种淡水系统中的水生和陆地生物构成威胁。为了评估环境参数与 MC 之间的关系，研究人员经常使用相关分析。这种统计方法在总结复杂的水质监测数据集时非常有用，但已记录到选定参数与 MC 之间的相关性在不同研究和系统中差异很大。这种同行评议文献中的差异使得资源管理者在制定 MC 监测计划时存在不确定性。本研究的目的是确定环境参数与 MC 之间的相关分析是否有助于希望了解 MC 驱动因素的资源管理者。使用 Fisher's z 荟萃分析从大约 2643 个水体（主要来自北温带地区）中检索环境（即物理、化学和生物）和 MC 相关数据，并进行综合分析。常见的水质参数，如叶绿素、温度和 pH 值，与 MC 呈正相关，而透明度与 MC 呈负相关。有趣的是，在所研究的 15 个氮参数中，有 12 个（包括总氮）与 MC 没有显著相关性。相比之下，四个所研究的磷参数中有三个（包括总磷）与 MC 呈正相关。该综合分析的结果定量地强化了常用环境参数在监测与 MC 发生相关的条件方面的有用性；然而，相关分析本身通常效果不佳，除了考虑参数在蓝藻水华生态中的作用外，还需要考虑其在 MC 产生方面的作用。
