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利用不育昆虫技术的稳健控制策略,降低媒介迁移存在下的流行病学风险。

Robust control strategy by the Sterile Insect Technique for reducing epidemiological risk in presence of vector migration.

机构信息

Sorbonne Université, Université Paris-Cité, Inria, CNRS, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, équipe Mamba, 5 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France.

CIRAD, Umr AMAP, Pôle de Protection des Plantes, F-97410 Saint Pierre, France; AMAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRA, IRD, Montpellier, France; University of Pretoria, Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Pretoria, South Africa.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 2022 Aug;350:108856. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2022.108856. Epub 2022 Jun 9.

Abstract

The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) is a promising technique to control mosquitoes, vectors of diseases, like dengue, chikungunya or Zika. However, its application in the field is not easy, and its success hinges upon several constraints, one of them being that the treated area must be sufficiently isolated to limit migration or re-invasion by mosquitoes from the outside. In this manuscript we study the impact of males and (fertile) females migration on SIT. We show that a critical release rate for sterile males exists for every migration level, in the context of continuous or periodic releases. In particular, when (fertile) females migration is sufficiently low, then SIT can be conducted successfully using either open-loop control or closed-loop control (or a combination of both methods) when regular measurements of the wild population are completed. Numerical simulations to illustrate our theoretical results are presented and discussed. Finally, we derive a threshold value for the females migration rate, when viruses are circulating, under which it is possible to lower the epidemiological risk in the treated area, according to the size of the human population.

摘要

不育昆虫技术(SIT)是一种有前途的控制蚊子的技术,蚊子是登革热、基孔肯雅热或寨卡等疾病的传播媒介。然而,其在实际中的应用并不容易,其成功取决于几个限制因素,其中之一是处理区域必须足够隔离,以限制蚊子从外部的迁移或再次入侵。在本文中,我们研究了雄性和(有生育能力的)雌性迁移对 SIT 的影响。我们表明,在连续或周期性释放的情况下,对于每一种迁移水平,都存在一个临界的不育雄性释放率。特别是,当(有生育能力的)雌性迁移率足够低时,那么在定期完成野生种群的测量的情况下,可以使用开环控制或闭环控制(或两种方法的组合)成功地进行 SIT。本文还呈现并讨论了数值模拟结果,以说明我们的理论结果。最后,我们推导出了在病毒传播的情况下,雌性迁移率的一个阈值,根据人口规模,在该阈值下可以降低处理区域的流行病学风险。

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