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厚尾随机波动率下不确定性风险的高阶动态效应

Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility.

作者信息

Gong Xiao-Li, Lu Jin-Yan, Xiong Xiong, Zhang Wei

机构信息

School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266061 China.

College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China.

出版信息

Financ Innov. 2022;8(1):65. doi: 10.1186/s40854-022-00370-5. Epub 2022 Jun 7.


DOI:10.1186/s40854-022-00370-5
PMID:35693847
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9171085/
Abstract

Sudden and uncertain events often cause cross-contagion of risk among various sectors of the macroeconomy. This paper introduces the stochastic volatility shock that follows a thick-tailed Student's -distribution into a high-order approximate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Epstein-Zin preference to better analyze the dynamic effect of uncertainty risk on macroeconomics. Then, the high-dimensional DSGE model (DSGE-SV-) is developed to examine the impact of uncertainty risk on the transmission mechanism among macroeconomic sectors. The empirical research found that uncertainty risk generates heterogeneous impacts on macroeconomic dynamics under different inflation levels and economic states. Among them, a technological shock has the strongest impact on employment and consumption channels. The crowding-out effect of a fiscal policy stimulus on consumption and private investments is relatively weakened when considering uncertainty risk but is more pronounced during periods of high inflation. Uncertainty risk can partly explain the decline in investments and the increase in interest rates and employment rates, given the impact of an agent's risk preferences. Compared with external economic conditions, the inflation factor has a stronger impact on the macro transmission mechanism caused by uncertainty risk.

摘要

突发和不确定事件往往会导致宏观经济各部门之间的风险交叉传染。本文将服从厚尾学生分布的随机波动率冲击引入具有爱泼斯坦-津偏好的高阶近似动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,以更好地分析不确定性风险对宏观经济的动态影响。然后,构建高维DSGE模型(DSGE-SV-)来考察不确定性风险对宏观经济部门间传导机制的影响。实证研究发现,不确定性风险在不同通胀水平和经济状态下对宏观经济动态产生异质性影响。其中,技术冲击对就业和消费渠道的影响最强。考虑不确定性风险时,财政政策刺激对消费和私人投资的挤出效应相对减弱,但在高通胀时期更为明显。考虑到主体风险偏好的影响,不确定性风险可以部分解释投资下降以及利率和就业率上升的现象。与外部经济条件相比,通胀因素对不确定性风险引发的宏观传导机制影响更强。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/605d47a9ee09/40854_2022_370_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/51bf7a55683d/40854_2022_370_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/e171d85d4044/40854_2022_370_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/03745c38ade8/40854_2022_370_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/b7e912334d42/40854_2022_370_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/90173d8db416/40854_2022_370_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/f33bb3a0e9d2/40854_2022_370_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/605d47a9ee09/40854_2022_370_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/51bf7a55683d/40854_2022_370_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/e171d85d4044/40854_2022_370_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/03745c38ade8/40854_2022_370_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/b7e912334d42/40854_2022_370_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/90173d8db416/40854_2022_370_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/f33bb3a0e9d2/40854_2022_370_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/174c/9171085/605d47a9ee09/40854_2022_370_Fig7_HTML.jpg

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[3]
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