Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Earth and Environmental Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia.
Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Acton, Australia.
Demography. 2022 Aug 1;59(4):1249-1274. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9986021.
Growing evidence suggests that internal migration experience shapes future internal migration behavior. However, it remains unclear what stage of the decision-making process past internal migration facilitates and whether the impact depends on the distance moved. To advance understanding of the role of past migration, we explicitly and dynamically link migration experiences to the formation and realization of future internal migration intentions by blending the aspiration-ability framework with the learned behavior hypothesis. We empirically test our proposition by fitting a series of logistic regression models to longitudinal microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, which has been conducted annually since 2001. We use a two-step approach by first modeling internal migration intentions and then modeling the realization of these intentions, distinguishing between residential moves, onward interregional migration, and return interregional migration. We find that migration experience is positively associated with both the formation and realization of migration intentions and that the effect of past migration increases with the distance moved and the number of past migrations. These findings suggest that migration experiences accumulate over the life course to predispose individuals toward subsequent migration. Finally, we show that the effect of past migration is not the result of a lack of social capital among repeat migrants-a finding that reinforces the importance of conceptualizing internal migration as a life course trajectory rather than a series of discrete events.
越来越多的证据表明，迁移经历会影响未来的迁移行为。然而，过去的迁移经历在决策过程的哪个阶段起作用，以及这种影响是否取决于迁移距离，这些问题仍不清楚。为了深入了解过去迁移的作用，我们通过将愿望能力框架与习得行为假说相结合，明确且动态地将迁移经历与未来的内部迁移意愿的形成和实现联系起来。我们利用澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态调查（HILDA）自 2001 年以来每年进行的纵向微观数据，通过拟合一系列逻辑回归模型来检验我们的假设。我们采用两步法，首先是对内部迁移意愿进行建模，然后是对这些意愿的实现进行建模，区分居住迁移、跨区域继续迁移和跨区域返回迁移。我们发现，迁移经历与迁移意愿的形成和实现呈正相关，过去迁移的影响随着迁移距离和过去迁移次数的增加而增加。这些发现表明，迁移经历会随着个人的生活轨迹积累，使他们更倾向于随后的迁移。最后，我们表明过去迁移的影响并不是重复迁移者缺乏社会资本的结果——这一发现强调了将内部迁移视为人生轨迹而不是一系列离散事件的重要性。
