School of Tourism and Urban Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330013, China.
Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330013, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Jun 22;194(7):515. doi: 10.1007/s10661-022-10085-w.
Urbanization is a critical factor affecting regional carbon emissions. Clarifying the linkage between urbanization and carbon emissions can provide a decision-making reference to realize China's goal of carbon neutrality. This article examines the spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2018. A complete set of variables is considered to construct relevant land and ecological urbanization variables, and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and spatial Durbin model (SDM) are adopted to explore the impact of various driving factors on carbon emissions. The results indicate that (1) during the study period, the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration exhibited a fluctuating increase and that the incremental carbon emissions followed a downward trend. (2) Carbon emissions exhibited a positive spatial correlation. Cold- and hotspot areas indicated a three-gradient pattern from west to east, and a concentric circle radiation pattern occurred with Shanghai as the core. Carbon emissions were spatially imbalanced, but the centre of gravity slightly fluctuated, with a total migration distance of 38.48 km, indicating a migration trend towards the southeast. (3) Regarding the two considered dimensions of urbanization, all driving factors except urbanization played a role in carbon emission enhancement. Consequently, for every 1% increase in economic factors, the carbon emissions correspondingly increased by 0.43-0.57%. Hence, economic factors are the most important factors promoting increased carbon emissions. In the ecological urbanization dimension, urbanization caused a non-significant decrease in carbon emissions, while there was no spillover effect on carbon emissions in neighbouring areas. Accordingly, carbon emission reduction efforts should promote the transformation of urbanization from a land-driven process to an ecologically driven process and realize the synergies among carbon emission reductions, urban development, and land use.
城市化是影响区域碳排放的关键因素。厘清城市化与碳排放的关系，可为实现中国碳达峰碳中和目标提供决策参考。本文以 2008—2018 年长三角城市群为研究时段，探讨了其城市化与碳排放的时空格局演变。构建了一套完整的变量体系，用以刻画相关的土地和生态城市化变量，并采用 STIRPAT 模型和空间 Durbin 模型（SDM）探讨了各驱动因素对碳排放的影响。结果表明：①研究期内，长三角城市群碳排放呈现波动上升态势，增量碳排放呈下降趋势；②碳排放具有显著的正向空间相关性，冷热点区域呈现出由西向东的三梯度格局，且以上海为核心呈同心圆辐射状分布，碳排放存在空间不均衡现象，但重心略有波动，总迁移距离为 38.48km，呈现向东南方向迁移的趋势；③就城市化的两个维度而言，除城市化外，各驱动因素均对碳排放的增加起到了正向的推动作用，经济因素每增加 1%，碳排放相应增加 0.43%—0.57%，是促进碳排放增加的最重要因素。在生态城市化维度，城市化导致碳排放呈不显著的下降趋势，且对周边地区的碳排放没有溢出效应。因此，减排工作应推动城市化从土地驱动型向生态驱动型转变，实现碳减排、城市发展和土地利用的协同增效。
