Raimondo Sandy, Forbes Valery E
Gulf Ecosystem Measurement and Modeling Division, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Breeze, FL 32561, USA.
Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA.
Ecologies (Basel). 2022 May 27;3(2):145-160. doi: 10.3390/ecologies3020012.
Under standard guidance for conducting Ecological Risk Assessments (ERAs), the risks of chemical exposure to diverse organisms are most often based on deterministic point estimates evaluated against safety-factor-based levels of concern (LOCs). While the science and guidance for mechanistic effect models (e.g., demographic, population, and agent-based) have long been demonstrated to provide more ecologically relevant effect endpoints upon which risk can be evaluated, their application in ERAs has been limited, particularly in the US. This special issue highlights the state of the science in effect modeling for ERAs through demonstrated application of the recently published Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for ERA (Pop-GUIDE). We introduce this issue with a perspective on why it is critical to move past the current application of deterministic endpoints and LOCs. We demonstrate how the current, widely used approaches contain extensive uncertainty that could be reduced considerably by applying models that account for species life histories and other important endogenous and exogenous factors critical to species sustainability. We emphasize that it is long past time to incorporate better, more robust, and ecologically relevant effect models into ERAs, particularly for chronic risk determination. The papers in this special issue demonstrate how mechanistic models that follow Pop-GUIDE better inform ERAs compared to the current standard practice.
在进行生态风险评估（ERA）的标准指导下，化学物质暴露对不同生物体的风险通常基于针对基于安全系数的关注水平（LOC）进行评估的确定性点估计。虽然长期以来，机械效应模型（如人口统计学、种群和基于主体的模型）的科学和指导已被证明能够提供更具生态相关性的效应终点，据此可评估风险，但它们在ERA中的应用一直有限，尤其是在美国。本期特刊通过展示最近发布的《用于ERA的种群建模指南、使用、解释和发展》（Pop-GUIDE）的实际应用，突出了ERA效应建模的科学现状。我们以一篇视角文章开篇，阐述为何超越当前确定性终点和LOC的应用至关重要。我们展示了当前广泛使用的方法如何包含大量不确定性，而通过应用考虑物种生活史以及对物种可持续性至关重要的其他重要内源性和外源性因素的模型，这些不确定性可以大幅降低。我们强调，早就应该将更好、更稳健且具有生态相关性的效应模型纳入ERA，特别是用于慢性风险的判定。本期特刊中的论文展示了遵循Pop-GUIDE的机械模型与当前标准做法相比，如何能为ERA提供更优的信息。
