Zhang Shuwen, Sun Zhaobin, He Juan, Li Ziming, Han Ling, Shang Jing, Hao Yu
School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100029, China.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Oct 15;843:157024. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157024. Epub 2022 Jun 27.
Previous research has extensively studied the seasonalities of human influenza infections and the effect of specific climatic factors in different regions. However, there is limited understanding of the influences of monsoons. This study applied generalized additive model with monthly surveillance data from mainland China to explore the influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza in China. The results suggested two influenza active periods in northern China and three active periods in southern China. The study found that the northerly advancement of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) influences the summer influenza spatio-temporal patterns in both southern and northern China. At the interannual scale, the north-south converse effect of EASM on influenza activity is mainly due to the converse effect of EASM on humidity and precipitation. Within the annual scale, influenza activity in southern China gradually reaches its maximum during the summer exacerbated by the northerly advancement of EASM. Furthermore, the winter epidemic in China is related to the low temperature and humidity influenced by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Moreover, the active period in transition season is related partially to the large rapid temperature change influenced by the transition of EAWM and EASM. Despite the delayed onset and instability, the climatic condition influenced by the East Asian Monsoon is one of the potential key drivers of influenza activity.
以往的研究广泛探讨了人类流感感染的季节性以及不同地区特定气候因素的影响。然而，对于季风的影响了解有限。本研究运用广义相加模型和来自中国大陆的月度监测数据，以探究东亚季风对中国季节性流感时空模式的影响。结果表明，中国北方有两个流感活跃期，南方有三个活跃期。研究发现，东亚夏季风（EASM）向北推进影响了中国南方和北方夏季流感的时空模式。在年际尺度上，EASM对流感活动的南北反向影响主要归因于EASM对湿度和降水的反向影响。在年内尺度上，受EASM向北推进的影响，中国南方的流感活动在夏季逐渐达到峰值。此外，中国冬季的疫情与受东亚冬季风（EAWM）影响的低温和低湿度有关。而且，过渡季节的活跃期部分与受EAWM和EASM过渡影响的大幅快速温度变化有关。尽管东亚季风影响下的气候条件存在延迟 onset 和不稳定的情况，但它是流感活动的潜在关键驱动因素之一。 （注：原文中“onset”翻译为“开始”，这里结合语境调整为“起始”更通顺些，但按照要求未添加解释）
