Jain Nityanand, Hung I-Chun, Kimura Hitomi, Goh Yi Lin, Jau William, Huynh Khoa Le Anh, Panag Deepkanwar Singh, Tiwari Ranjit, Prasad Sakshi, Manirambona Emery, Vasanthakumaran Tamilarasy, Amanda Tan Weiling, Lin Ho-Wei, Vig Nikhil, An Nguyen Thanh, Uwiringiyimana Emmanuel, Popkova Darja, Lin Ting-Han, Nguyen Minh Anh, Jain Shivani, Umar Tungki Pratama, Suleman Mohamed Hoosen, Efendi Elnur, Kuo Chuan-Ying, Bansal Sikander Pal Singh, Kauškale Sofja, Peng Hui-Hui, Bains Mohit, Rozevska Marija, Tran Thang Huu, Tsai Meng-Shan, Jiraboonsri Suvinai, Tai Ruo-Zhu, Khan Zeeshan Ali, Huy Dang Thanh, Kositbovornchai Supitsara, Chiu Ching-Wen, Nguyen Thi Hien Hau, Chen Hsueh-Yen, Khongyot Thanawat, Chen Kai-Yang, Quyen Dinh Thi Kim, Lam Jennifer, Dila Kadek Agus Surya, Cu Ngan Thanh, Thi My Tam Huynh, Dung Le Anh, Thi Kim Oanh Nguyen, Thi Hoai An Nguyen, Trieu My Duc Thao, Thi Yen Cao, Pham Thien Trang, Ariyoshi Koya, Smith Chris, Huy Nguyen Tien
Faculty of Medicine, Riga Stradins University, 16 Dzirciema iela, Riga LV-1007, Latvia.
Online Research Club (https://www.onlineresearchclub.org/), Nagasaki, Japan.
Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia. 2022 Sep;4:100031. doi: 10.1016/j.lansea.2022.100031. Epub 2022 Jun 22.
Tackling the spread of COVID-19 remains a crucial part of ending the pandemic. Its highly contagious nature and constant evolution coupled with a relative lack of immunity make the virus difficult to control. For this, various strategies have been proposed and adopted including limiting contact, social isolation, vaccination, contact tracing, etc. However, given the heterogeneity in the enforcement of these strategies and constant fluctuations in the strictness levels of these strategies, it becomes challenging to assess the true impact of these strategies in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
In the present study, we evaluated various transmission control measures that were imposed in 10 global urban cities and provinces in 2021- Bangkok, Gauteng, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, London, Manila City, New Delhi, New York City, Singapore, and Tokyo.
Based on our analysis, we herein propose the population-level Swiss cheese model for the failures and pitfalls in various strategies that each of these cities and provinces had. Furthermore, whilst all the evaluated cities and provinces took a different personalized approach to managing the pandemic, what remained common was dynamic enforcement and monitoring of breaches of each barrier of protection. The measures taken to reinforce the barriers were adjusted continuously based on the evolving epidemiological situation.
How an individual city or province handled the pandemic profoundly affected and determined how the entire country handled the pandemic since the chain of transmission needs to be broken at the very grassroot level to achieve nationwide control.
The present study did not receive any external funding.
应对新冠病毒的传播仍然是终结疫情的关键部分。其高度传染性、不断演变以及相对缺乏免疫力的特性使得该病毒难以控制。为此,人们提出并采用了各种策略,包括限制接触、社交隔离、接种疫苗、接触者追踪等。然而,鉴于这些策略在实施过程中的异质性以及这些策略严格程度的不断波动,评估这些策略在控制新冠病毒传播方面的真正影响变得具有挑战性。
在本研究中,我们评估了2021年在全球10个城市和省份实施的各种传播控制措施,这些地方包括曼谷、豪登省、胡志明市、雅加达、伦敦、马尼拉市、新德里、纽约市、新加坡和东京。
基于我们的分析,我们在此提出针对这些城市和省份各自在各种策略中存在的失败和缺陷的人群层面的瑞士奶酪模型。此外,虽然所有评估的城市和省份在管理疫情方面都采取了不同的个性化方法,但共同之处在于对每个保护屏障的动态执行和对违规行为的监测。根据不断演变的疫情形势,加强屏障的措施不断调整。
由于需要在基层层面打破传播链以实现全国范围的控制,一个城市或省份应对疫情的方式会深刻影响并决定整个国家应对疫情的方式。
本研究未接受任何外部资金。