School of Economics, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, 250358, China.
Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G37LD, UK.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Nov;29(55):83956-83968. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21712-x. Epub 2022 Jul 1.
Based on mainland China's provincial OFDI and carbon emissions data from 2003 to 2018, this paper applied a panel fixed-effects model and spatial econometric model to empirically test whether China's OFDI can be a powerful tool to achieve the "carbon neutrality" target. The empirical results indicate that China's OFDI significantly increases carbon emissions, but this effect has temporal and spatial differences. After incorporating spatial factors into the analysis, the impact of OFDI on carbon emissions differs when modelled by different spatial weight matrices. The green effect of OFDI has the problem of poor channels. It is impossible to achieve energy savings and emission reduction by promoting green technology innovation, improving the rationalization of the industrial structure or reducing energy consumption. The test results of the moderating effect indicate that the development of green finance can weaken the positive effect of OFDI on emissions.
基于中国大陆的对外直接投资和 2003 年至 2018 年的碳排放数据，本文采用面板固定效应模型和空间计量经济学模型，实证检验了中国的对外直接投资是否可以成为实现“碳中和”目标的有力工具。实证结果表明，中国的对外直接投资显著增加了碳排放，但这种效应具有时间和空间上的差异。在将空间因素纳入分析后，不同空间权重矩阵下对外直接投资对碳排放的影响不同。对外直接投资的绿色效应存在渠道不畅的问题，通过促进绿色技术创新、提高产业结构合理化或降低能源消耗来实现节能减排的效果并不理想。调节效应的检验结果表明，发展绿色金融可以削弱对外直接投资对排放的正向效应。
