Blasi Maria, Clough Yann, Jönsson Anna Maria, Sahlin Ullrika
Centre for Environmental and Climate Science Lund University Lund Sweden.
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Lund Sweden.
Ecol Evol. 2022 Jun 17;12(6):e9014. doi: 10.1002/ece3.9014. eCollection 2022 Jul.
The viability of wild bee populations and the pollination services that they provide are driven by the availability of food resources during their activity period and within the surroundings of their nesting sites. Changes in climate and land use influence the availability of these resources and are major threats to declining bee populations. Because wild bees may be vulnerable to interactions between these threats, spatially explicit models of population dynamics that capture how bee populations jointly respond to land use at a landscape scale and weather are needed. Here, we developed a spatially and temporally explicit theoretical model of wild bee populations aiming for a middle ground between the existing mapping of visitation rates using foraging equations and more refined agent-based modeling. The model is developed for sp. and captures within-season colony dynamics. The model describes mechanistically foraging at the colony level and temporal population dynamics for an average colony at the landscape level. Stages in population dynamics are temperature-dependent triggered by a theoretical generalized seasonal progression, which can be informed by growing degree days. The purpose of the LandscapePhenoBee model is to evaluate the impact of system changes and within-season variability in resources on bee population sizes and crop visitation rates. In a simulation study, we used the model to evaluate the impact of the shortage of food resources in the landscape arising from extreme drought events in different types of landscapes (ranging from different proportions of semi-natural habitats and early and late flowering crops) on bumblebee populations.
野生蜜蜂种群的生存能力及其提供的授粉服务，取决于其活动期间以及筑巢地点周边食物资源的可获取性。气候和土地利用的变化会影响这些资源的可获取性，是蜜蜂种群数量下降的主要威胁。由于野生蜜蜂可能易受这些威胁之间相互作用的影响，因此需要能在景观尺度上捕捉蜜蜂种群如何对土地利用和天气共同做出反应的空间明确的种群动态模型。在此，我们开发了一个时空明确的野生蜜蜂种群理论模型，旨在在使用觅食方程的现有访花率映射与更精细的基于主体的建模之间找到一个折衷方案。该模型是针对[具体物种]开发的，并捕捉了季节内的蜂群动态。该模型在蜂群层面机械地描述觅食行为，在景观层面描述平均蜂群的时间种群动态。种群动态的各个阶段由理论上的广义季节进程触发，与温度相关，这可以由生长度日来确定。景观物候蜜蜂（LandscapePhenoBee）模型的目的是评估系统变化和季节内资源变异性对蜜蜂种群规模和作物访花率的影响。在一项模拟研究中，我们使用该模型评估了不同类型景观（从不同比例的半自然栖息地以及早花和晚花作物）中极端干旱事件导致的景观食物资源短缺对熊蜂种群的影响。
