Three years of warming and rainfall reduction alter leaf physiology but not relative abundance of an annual species in a Mediterranean savanna.

Increasing air temperatures and decreasing rainfall can alter Mediterranean ecosystems, where summer heat and drought already limit plant regeneration. Manipulative field studies can help to understand and anticipate community responses to climate changes. In a Mediterranean oak wooded pasture, we have investigated the effects of warming (W, via open-top chambers increasing 1.4 °C mean air temperature), reduced rainfall (D, via gutters removing 33% of rainfall) and the combination of both factors (WD) on the winter-annual Geranium dissectum L. We measured reproductive phenology and output, leaf physiology during the reproductive phase, and plant relative abundance. Warming had a positive effect on plant height and little effects on leaf physiology. Rainfall reduction enhanced leaf water use efficiency. However, the most noticeable effects occurred in WD plants, which exhibited lower leaf predawn water potential and earlier flowering phenology in the first year of treatment, and a higher ratio of leaf dark respiration (R) to net CO assimilation (P) at comparable temperatures in the third year, compared to control plants. Leaf R at ambient temperature was similar across climatic treatments. The relative abundance of G. dissectum decreased by 23% over three years, but similarly across treatments. A short life cycle helps G. dissectum to escape severe late-spring heat and drought stress. Moreover, stomata closure and thermal acclimation of R can attenuate plant stress impact on reproduction. Adaptability of the short-lived annual G. dissectum could mitigate climate change impact on community composition over short periods (e.g. three years); however, a reduction in net carbon gain could eventually affect its reproductive success and persistence in the community.