Koimbori Jackson K, Wang Shuai, Pan Jie, Guo Liping, Li Kuo
Key Lab for Agro-Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China.
Plants (Basel). 2022 Jun 21;11(13):1634. doi: 10.3390/plants11131634.
Agriculture production has been found to be the most sensitive sector to climate change. Northeast China (NEC) is one of the world's major regions for spring maize production and it has been affected by climate change due to increases in temperature and decreases in sunshine hours and precipitation levels over the past few decades. In this study, the CERES-Maize model-v4.7 was adopted to assess the impact of future climatic change on the yield of spring maize in NEC and the effect of adaptation measures in two future periods, the 2030s (2021 to 2040) and the 2050s (2041 to 2060) relative to the baseline (1986 to 2005) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results showed that increased temperatures and the decreases in both the precipitation level and sunshine hours in the NEC at six representative sites in the 2030s and 2050s periods based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios would shorten the maize growth durations by (1-38 days) and this would result in a reduction in maize yield by (2.5-26.4%). Adaptation measures, including altered planting date, supplemental irrigation and use of cultivars with longer growth periods could offset some negative impacts of yield decrease in maize. For high-temperature-sensitive cultivars, the adoption of early planting, cultivar change and adding irrigation practices could lead to an increase in maize yield by 23.7-43.6% and these measures were shown to be effective adaptation options towards reducing yield loss from climate change. The simulation results exhibited the effective contribution of appropriate adaptation measures in eliminating the negative impact of future climate change on maize yield.
农业生产被认为是对气候变化最敏感的部门。中国东北地区（NEC）是世界上主要的春玉米产区之一，在过去几十年里，由于气温升高、日照时数减少和降水量下降，该地区受到了气候变化的影响。在本研究中，采用CERES - Maize模型v4.7评估未来气候变化对中国东北地区春玉米产量的影响，以及在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，相对于基线期（1986 - 2005年）的两个未来时期，即2030年代（2021 - 2040年）和2050年代（2041 - 2060年）适应措施的效果。结果表明，基于RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景，2030年代和2050年代中国东北地区六个代表性地点的气温升高、降水量和日照时数减少，将使玉米生长周期缩短（1 - 38天），这将导致玉米产量降低（2.5 - 26.4%）。适应措施，包括改变种植日期、补充灌溉和使用生育期较长的品种，可以抵消玉米产量下降的一些负面影响。对于对高温敏感的品种，采用早播、更换品种和增加灌溉措施可使玉米产量提高23.7 - 43.6%，这些措施被证明是减少气候变化造成产量损失的有效适应方案。模拟结果显示了适当的适应措施在消除未来气候变化对玉米产量负面影响方面的有效作用。
