Department of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway; Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.
Curr Opin Psychol. 2022 Aug;46:101393. doi: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101393. Epub 2022 Jun 13.
We examine conspiracy beliefs in the context of misplaced certainty-certainty that is unsubstantiated by one's own or others' skepticism. A conspiracy theory held with misplaced certainty may entail, for instance, "knowing" or feeling certain that secret actors are plotting against society yet acknowledging that this claim lacks evidence or is opposed by most other people. Recent work on misplaced certainty suggests that misplaced certainty predicts and results in antisocial outcomes, including fanatical behavior in terms of aggression, determined ignorance, and adherence to extreme groups. Introducing the concept of misplaced certainty to theory and research on conspiracy theories may help identify when and why conspiracy theories lead to deleterious behavioral outcomes.
我们在错误确定的背景下研究阴谋论信念——这种确定不是基于自己或他人的怀疑态度。例如,持有错误确定的阴谋论可能意味着“知道”或感到确定,认为秘密行动者正在阴谋反对社会,同时承认这一说法缺乏证据或大多数人反对。最近关于错误确定的研究表明,错误确定预测并导致反社会结果,包括在侵略、顽固无知和坚持极端团体方面的狂热行为。将错误确定的概念引入阴谋论的理论和研究中,可能有助于确定何时以及为什么阴谋论会导致有害的行为结果。